Article by Zoë Brammer, Ankur Vora, Anine Andresen and Shahar Avin: “The success of AI governance efforts will largely rest on foresight, or the ability of AI labs, policymakers and others to identify, assess and prepare for divergent AI scenarios. Traditional governance tools like policy papers, roundtables, or government RFIs have their place, but are often too slow or vague for a technology as fast-advancing, general-purpose, and uncertain as AI. Data-driven forecasts and predictions, such as those developed by Epoch AI and Metaculus, and vivid scenarios such as those painted by AI 2027, are one component of what is needed. Still, even these methods don’t force participants to grapple with the messiness of human decision-making in such scenarios.
Why games? Why science?
In Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla tells us that strategic wargames began in earnest in the early 19th century, when Baron von Reisswitz and his son developed a tabletop exercise to teach the Prussian General Staff about military strategy in dynamic, uncertain environments. Today, ‘serious games’ remain best known in military and security domains, but they are used everywhere from education to business strategy.
In recent years, Technology Strategy Roleplay, a charity organisation, has pioneered the application of serious games to AI governance. TSR’s Intelligence Rising game simulates the paths by which AI capabilities and risks might take shape, and invites decision-makers to role-play the incentives, tensions and trade-offs that result. To date, more than 250 participants from governments, tech firms, think tanks and beyond have taken part.
Building on this example, we at Google DeepMind wanted to co-design a game to explore how AI may affect science and society. Why? As we outlined in a past essay, we believe that the application of AI to science could be its most consequential. As a domain, science also aligns nicely with the five criteria that successful games require, as outlined in a past paper by TSR’s Shahar Avin and colleagues:
- Many actors must work together: Scientific progress rests on the interplay between policymakers, funders, academic researchers, corporate labs, and others. Their varying incentives, timelines, and ethical frameworks naturally lead to tensions that games are well-placed to explore…(More)”.
