Essay by Edward Tenner: “One of the great, underappreciated facts about our technology-driven age is that unintended consequences tend to outnumber intended ones. As much as we would like to believe that we are in control, scholars who have studied catastrophic failures have shown that humility is ultimately the only justifiable attitude…
Here’s a story about a revolution that never happened. Nearly 90 years ago, a 26-year-old newly credentialed Harvard sociology PhD and future American Philosophical Society member, Robert K. Merton, published a paper in the American Sociological Review that would become one of the most frequently cited in his discipline: “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action.”While the language of the paper was modest, it offered an obvious but revolutionary insight: many or most phenomena in the social world are unintended – for better or worse. Today, even management gurus like Tom Peters acknowledge that, “Unintended consequences outnumber intended consequences. … Strategies rarely unfold as we imagined. Intended consequences are rare.”
Merton had promised a monograph on the history and analysis of the problem, with its “vast scope and manifold implications.” Somewhere along the way, however, he abandoned the project, perhaps because it risked becoming a book about everything. Moreover, his apparent retreat may have discouraged other social scientists from attempting it, revealing one of the paradoxes of the subject’s study: because it is so universal and important, it may be best suited for case studies rather than grand theories.
Ironically, while unintentionality-centered analysis might have produced a Copernican revolution in social science, it is more likely that it would have unleashed adverse unintended consequences for any scholar attempting it – just as Thomas Kuhn’s idea of scientific paradigms embroiled him in decades of controversies. Besides, there are also ideological barriers to the study of unintended consequences. For every enthusiast there seems to be a hater, and dwelling on the unintended consequences of an opponent’s policies invites retaliation in kind.
This was economist Albert O. Hirschman’s point in his own critique of the theme. Hirschman himself had formidable credentials as a student of unintended consequences. One of his most celebrated and controversial ideas, the “hiding hand,” was a spin-off of Adam Smith’s famous metaphor for the market (the invisible hand). In Development Projects Observed, Hirschman noted that many successful programs might never have been launched had all the difficulties been known; but once a commitment was made, human ingenuity prevailed, and new and unforeseen solutions were found. The Sydney Opera House, for example, exceeded its budget by 1,300%, but it turned out to be a bargain once it became Australia’s unofficial icon…(More)”