Anticipating human mobility: Methods, data, and policy in forecasting and foresight

Editorial to Special Collection by Matteo Fontana, Martina Belmonte, Claudio Bosco Damien Jusselme, Alina Menocal Peters, Umberto Minora, Anna Rosinska and Stefaan Verhulst: “The escalating complexity of global migration patterns renders evident the limitation of traditional reactive governance approaches and the urgent need for anticipatory and forward-thinking strategies. This Special Collection, “Anticipatory Methods in Migration Policy: Forecasting, Foresight, and Other Forward-Looking Methods in Migration Policymaking,” groups scholarly works and practitioners’ contributions dedicated to the state-of-the-art of anticipatory approaches. It showcases significant methodological evolutions, highlighting innovations from advanced quantitative forecasting using Machine Learning to predict displacement, irregular border crossings, and asylum trends, to rich, in-depth insights generated through qualitative foresight, participatory scenario building, and hybrid methodologies that integrate diverse knowledge forms. The contributions collectively emphasize the power of methodological pluralism, address a spectrum of migration drivers, including conflict and climate change, and critically examine the opportunities, ethical imperatives, and governance challenges associated with novel data sources, such as mobile phone data. By focusing on translating predictive insights and foresight into actionable policies and humanitarian action, this collection aims to advance both academic discourse and provide tangible guidance for policymakers and practitioners. It underscores the importance of navigating inherent uncertainties and strengthening ethical frameworks to ensure that innovations in anticipatory migration policy enhance preparedness, resource allocation, and uphold human dignity in an era of increasing global migration…(More)”.