Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by David Spiegelhalter: “Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past, or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ‘conscious awareness of ignorance’1 — be it of the weather tomorrow, the next Premier League champions, the climate in 2100 or the identity of our ancient ancestors.

In daily life, we generally express uncertainty in words, saying an event “could”, “might” or “is likely to” happen (or have happened). But uncertain words can be treacherous. When, in 1961, the newly elected US president John F. Kennedy was informed about a CIA-sponsored plan to invade communist Cuba, he commissioned an appraisal from his military top brass. They concluded that the mission had a 30% chance of success — that is, a 70% chance of failure. In the report that reached the president, this was rendered as “a fair chance”. The Bay of Pigs invasion went ahead, and was a fiasco. There are now established scales for converting words of uncertainty into rough numbers. Anyone in the UK intelligence community using the term ‘likely’, for example, should mean a chance of between 55% and 75% (see go.nature.com/3vhu5zc).

Attempts to put numbers on chance and uncertainty take us into the mathematical realm of probability, which today is used confidently in any number of fields. Open any science journal, for example, and you’ll find papers liberally sprinkled with P values, confidence intervals and possibly Bayesian posterior distributions, all of which are dependent on probability.

And yet, any numerical probability, I will argue — whether in a scientific paper, as part of weather forecasts, predicting the outcome of a sports competition or quantifying a health risk — is not an objective property of the world, but a construction based on personal or collective judgements and (often doubtful) assumptions. Furthermore, in most circumstances, it is not even estimating some underlying ‘true’ quantity. Probability, indeed, can only rarely be said to ‘exist’ at all…(More)”.

Humanitarian Mapping with WhatsApp: Introducing ChatMap

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Emilio Mariscal: “…After some exploration, I came up with an idea: what if we could export chat conversations and extract the location data along with the associated messages? The solution would involve a straightforward application where users can upload their exported chats and instantly generate a map displaying all shared locations and messages. No business accounts or complex integrations would be required—just a simple, ready-to-use tool from day one.

ChatMap —chatmap.hotosm.org — is a straightforward and simple mapping solution that leverages WhatsApp, an application used by 2.78 billion people worldwide. Its simplicity and accessibility make it an effective tool for communities with limited technical knowledge. And it even works offline! as it relies on the GPS signal for location, sending all data with the phone to gather connectivity.

This solution provides complete independence, as it does not require users to adopt a technology that depends on third-party maintenance. It’s a simple data flow with an equally straightforward script that can be improved by anyone interested on GitHub.

We’re already using it! Recently, as part of a community mapping project to assess the risks in the slopes of Comuna 8 in Medellín, an area vulnerable to repeated flooding, a group of students and local collectives collaborated with the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap (HOT) to map areas affected by landslides and other disaster impacts. This initiative facilitated the identification and characterization of settlements, supporting humanitarian aid efforts.

Humanitarian Mapping ChatMap.jpg
Photo by Daniela Arbeláez Suárez (source: WhatsApp)

As shown in the picture, the community explored the area on foot, using their phones to take photos and notes, and shared them along with the location. It was incredibly simple!

The data gathered during this activity was transformed 20 minutes later (once getting access to a WIFI network) into a map, which was then uploaded to our online platform powered by uMap (umap.hotosm.org)…(More)”.

Humanitarian Mapping ChatMap WhatsApp Colombia.jpg
See more at https://umap.hotosm.org/en/map/unaula-mapea-con-whatsapp_38

Innovating with Non-Traditional Data: Recent Use Cases for Unlocking Public Value

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Stefaan Verhulst and Adam Zable: “Non-Traditional Data (NTD): “data that is digitally captured (e.g. mobile phone records), mediated (e.g. social media), or observed (e.g. satellite imagery), using new instrumentation mechanisms, often privately held.”

Digitalization and the resulting datafication have introduced a new category of data that, when re-used responsibly, can complement traditional data in addressing public interest questions—from public health to environmental conservation. Unlocking these often privately held datasets through data collaboratives is a key focus of what we have called The Third Wave of Open Data. 

To help bridge this gap, we have curated below recent examples of the use of NTD for research and decision-making that were published the past few months. They are organized into five categories:

  • Health and Well-being;
  • Humanitarian Aid;
  • Environment and Climate;
  • Urban Systems and Mobility, and 
  • Economic and Labor Dynamics…(More)”.

It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times: The Dual Realities of Data Access in the Age of Generative AI

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Stefaan Verhulst: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” –Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

Charles Dickens’s famous line captures the contradictions of the present moment in the world of data. On the one hand, data has become central to addressing humanity’s most pressing challenges — climate change, healthcare, economic development, public policy, and scientific discovery. On the other hand, despite the unprecedented quantity of data being generated, significant obstacles remain to accessing and reusing it. As our digital ecosystems evolve, including the rapid advances in artificial intelligence, we find ourselves both on the verge of a golden era of open data and at risk of slipping deeper into a restrictive “data winter.”

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens (1902)

These two realities are concurrent: the challenges posed by growing restrictions on data reuse, and the countervailing potential brought by advancements in privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs), synthetic data, and data commons approaches. It argues that while current trends toward closed data ecosystems threaten innovation, new technologies and frameworks could lead to a “Fourth Wave of Open Data,” potentially ushering in a new era of data accessibility and collaboration…(More)” (First Published in Industry Data for Society Partnership’s (IDSP) 2024 Year in Review).

Space, Satellites, and Democracy: Implications of the New Space Age for Democratic Processes and Recommendations for Action

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

NDI Report: “The dawn of a new space age is upon us, marked by unprecedented engagement from both state and private actors. Driven by technological innovations such as reusable rockets and miniaturized satellites, this era presents a double-edged sword for global democracy. On one side, democratized access to space offers powerful tools for enhancing civic processes. Satellite technology now enables real-time election monitoring, improved communication in remote areas, and more effective public infrastructure planning. It also equips democratic actors with means to document human rights abuses and circumvent authoritarian internet restrictions.

However, the accessibility of these technologies also raises significant concerns. The potential for privacy infringements and misuse by authoritarian regimes or malicious actors casts a shadow over these advancements.

This report discusses the opportunities and risks that space and satellite technologies pose to democracy, human rights, and civic processes globally. It examines the current regulatory and normative frameworks governing space activities and highlights key considerations for stakeholders navigating this increasingly competitive domain.

It is essential that the global democracy community be familiar with emerging trends in space and satellite technology and their implications for the future. Failure to do so will leave the community unprepared to harness the opportunities or address the challenges that space capabilities present. It would also cede influence over the development of global norms and standards in this arena to states and private sector interests alone and, in turn, ensure those standards are not rooted in democratic norms and human rights, but rather in principles such as state sovereignty and profit maximization…(More)”.

The AI revolution is running out of data. What can researchers do?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Nicola Jones: “The Internet is a vast ocean of human knowledge, but it isn’t infinite. And artificial intelligence (AI) researchers have nearly sucked it dry.

The past decade of explosive improvement in AI has been driven in large part by making neural networks bigger and training them on ever-more data. This scaling has proved surprisingly effective at making large language models (LLMs) — such as those that power the chatbot ChatGPT — both more capable of replicating conversational language and of developing emergent properties such as reasoning. But some specialists say that we are now approaching the limits of scaling. That’s in part because of the ballooning energy requirements for computing. But it’s also because LLM developers are running out of the conventional data sets used to train their models.

A prominent study1 made headlines this year by putting a number on this problem: researchers at Epoch AI, a virtual research institute, projected that, by around 2028, the typical size of data set used to train an AI model will reach the same size as the total estimated stock of public online text. In other words, AI is likely to run out of training data in about four years’ time (see ‘Running out of data’). At the same time, data owners — such as newspaper publishers — are starting to crack down on how their content can be used, tightening access even more. That’s causing a crisis in the size of the ‘data commons’, says Shayne Longpre, an AI researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge who leads the Data Provenance Initiative, a grass-roots organization that conducts audits of AI data sets.

The imminent bottleneck in training data could be starting to pinch. “I strongly suspect that’s already happening,” says Longpre…(More)”

Running out of data: Chart showing projections of the amount of text data used to train large language models and the amount of available text on the Internet, suggesting that by 2028, developers will be using data sets that match the total amount of text that is available.

My Voice, Your Voice, Our Voice: Attitudes Towards Collective Governance of a Choral AI Dataset

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Jennifer Ding, Eva Jäger, Victoria Ivanova, and Mercedes Bunz: “Data grows in value when joined and combined; likewise the power of voice grows in ensemble. With 15 UK choirs, we explore opportunities for bottom-up data governance of a jointly created Choral AI Dataset. Guided by a survey of chorister attitudes towards generative AI models trained using their data, we explore opportunities to create empowering governance structures that go beyond opt in and opt out. We test the development of novel mechanisms such as a Trusted Data Intermediary (TDI) to enable governance of the dataset amongst the choirs and AI developers. We hope our findings can contribute to growing efforts to advance collective data governance practices and shape a more creative, empowering future for arts communities in the generative AI ecosystem…(More)”.

Towards Civic Digital Twins: Co-Design the Citizen-Centric Future of Bologna

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Massimiliano Luca et al: “We introduce Civic Digital Twin (CDT), an evolution of Urban Digital Twins designed to support a citizen-centric transformative approach to urban planning and governance. CDT is being developed in the scope of the Bologna Digital Twin initiative, launched one year ago by the city of Bologna, to fulfill the city’s political and strategic goal of adopting innovative digital tools to support decision-making and civic engagement. The CDT, in addition to its capability of sensing the city through spatial, temporal, and social data, must be able to model and simulate social dynamics in a city: the behavior, attitude, and preference of citizens and collectives and how they impact city life and transform transformation processes. Another distinctive feature of CDT is that it must be able to engage citizens (individuals, collectives, and organized civil society) and other civic stakeholders (utilities, economic actors, third sector) interested in co-designing the future of the city. In this paper, we discuss the motivations that led to the definition of the CDT, define its modeling aspects and key research challenges, and illustrate its intended use with two use cases in urban mobility and urban development…(More)”.

Can the world’s most successful index get back up the rankings?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by James Watson: “You know your ranking model is influential when national governments change policies with the explicit goal of boosting their position on your index. That was the power of the Ease of Doing Business Index (also known as Doing Business) until 2021.

However, the index’s success became its downfall. Some governments set up dedicated teams with an explicit goal of improving the country’s performance on the index. If those teams’ activity was solely focussed on positive policy reform, that would be great; unfortunately, in at least some cases, they were simply trying to game the results.

World Bank’s Business Ready Index

Index ranking optimisation (aka gaming the results)

To give an example of how that could happen, we need to take a brief detour into the world of qualitative indicators. Bear with me. In many indexes grappling with complex topics, there is a perennial problem of data availability. Imagine you want to measure the number of days it takes to set up a new business (this was one of the indicators in Doing Business). You will find that most of the time the data either doesn’t exist or is rarely updated by governments. Instead, put very simplistically, you’d need to ask a few experts or businesses for their views, and use those to create a numerical score for your index.

This is a valid approach, and it’s used in a lot of studies. Take Transparency International’s long-running Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Transparency International goes to great lengths to use robust and comparable data across countries, but measuring actual corruption is not viable — for obvious reasons. So the CPI does something different, and the clue is in the name: it measures people’s perceptions of corruption. It asks local businesses and experts whether they think there’s much bribery, nepotism and other forms of corruption in their country. This foundational input is then bolstered with other data points. The data doesn’t aim to measure corruption; instead, it’s about assessing which countries are more, or less, corrupt. 

Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI)

This technique can work well, but it got a bit shaky as Doing Business’s fame grew. Some governments that were anxious to move up the rankings started urging the World Bank to tweak the methodology used to assess their ratings, or to use the views of specific experts. The analysts responsible for assessing a country’s scores and data points were put under significant pressure, often facing strong criticism from governments that didn’t agree with their assessments. In the end, an internal review showed that a number of countries’ scores had been improperly manipulated…The criticism must have stung, because the team behind the World Bank’s new Business Ready report has spent three years trying to address those issues. The new methodology handbook lands with a thump at 704 pages…(More)”.

Synthetic content and its implications for AI policy: a primer

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

UNESCO Paper: “The deployment of advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, particularly generative AI, has sparked discussions regarding the creation and use of synthetic content – i.e. AI-generated or modified outputs, including text, images, sounds, and combinations thereof – and its impact on individuals, societies, and economies. This note explores the different ways in which synthetic content can be generated and used and proposes a taxonomy that encompasses synthetic media and deepfakes, among others. The taxonomy aims to systematize key characteristics, enhancing understanding and informing policy discussions. Key findings highlight both the potential benefits and concerns associated with synthetic content in fields like data analytics, environmental sustainability, education, creativity, and mis/disinformation and point to the need to frame them ethically, in line with the principles and values of UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. Finally, the note brings to the fore critical questions that policymakers and experts alike need to address to ensure that the development of AI technologies aligns with human rights, human dignity, and fundamental freedoms…(More)”.