Should AGI-preppers embrace DOGE?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Blog by Henry Farrell: “…AGI-prepping is reshaping our politics. Wildly ambitious claims for AGI have not only shaped America’s grand strategy, but are plausibly among the justifying reasons for DOGE.

After the announcement of DOGE, but before it properly got going, I talked to someone who was not formally affiliated, but was very definitely DOGE adjacent. I put it to this individual that tearing out the decision making capacities of government would not be good for America’s ability to do things in the world. Their response (paraphrased slightly) was: so what? We’ll have AGI by late 2026. And indeed, one of DOGE’s major ambitions, as described in a new article in WIRED, appears to have been to pull as much government information as possible into a large model that could then provide useful information across the totality of government.

The point – which I don’t think is understood nearly widely enough – is that radical institutional revolutions such as DOGE follow naturally from the AGI-prepper framework. If AGI is right around the corner, we don’t need to have a massive federal government apparatus, organizing funding for science via the National Science Foundation and the National Institute for Health. After all, in Amodei and Pottinger’s prediction:

By 2027, AI developed by frontier labs will likely be smarter than Nobel Prize winners across most fields of science and engineering. … It will be able to … complete complex tasks that would take people months or years, such as designing new weapons or curing diseases.

Who needs expensive and cumbersome bureaucratic institutions for organizing funding scientists in a near future where a “country of geniuses [will be] contained in a data center,” ready to solve whatever problems we ask them to? Indeed, if these bottled geniuses are cognitively superior to humans across most or all tasks, why do we need human expertise at all, beyond describing and explaining human wants? From this perspective, most human based institutions are obsolescing assets that need to be ripped out, and DOGE is only the barest of beginnings…(More)”.

Bubble Trouble

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Bryan McMahon: “…Venture capital (VC) funds, drunk on a decade of “growth at all costs,” have poured about $200 billion into generative AI. Making matters worse, the stock market’s bull run is deeply dependent on the growth of the Big Tech companies fueling the AI bubble. In 2023, 71 percent of the total gains in the S&P 500 were attributable to the “Magnificent Seven”—Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft—all of which are among the biggest spenders on AI. Just four—Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta—combined for $246 billion of capital expenditure in 2024 to support the AI build-out. Goldman Sachs expects Big Tech to spend over $1 trillion on chips and data centers to power AI over the next five years. Yet OpenAI, the current market leader, expects to lose $5 billion this year, and its annual losses to swell to $11 billion by 2026. If the AI bubble bursts, it not only threatens to wipe out VC firms in the Valley but also blow a gaping hole in the public markets and cause an economy-wide meltdown…(More)”.

From Insights to Action: Amplifying Positive Deviance within Somali Rangelands

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Basma Albanna, Andreas Pawelke and Hodan Abdullahi: “In every community, some individuals or groups achieve significantly better outcomes than their peers, despite having similar challenges and resources. Finding these so-called positive deviants and working with them to diffuse their practices is referred to as the Positive Deviance approach. The Data-Powered Positive Deviance (DPPD) method follows the same logic as the Positive Deviance approach but leverages existing, non-traditional data sources, in conjunction with traditional data sources to identify and scale the solutions of positive deviants. The UNDP Somalia Accelerator Lab was part of the first cohort of teams that piloted the application of DPPD trying to tackle the rangeland health problem in the West Golis region. In this blog post we’re reflecting on the process we designed and tested to go from the identification and validation of successful practices to helping other communities adopt them.

Uncovering Rangeland Success

Three years ago we embarked on a journey to identify pastoral communities in Somaliland that demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity. Using a mix of traditional and non-traditional data sources, we wanted to explore and learn from communities that managed to have healthy rangelands despite the severe droughts of 2016 and 2017.

We engaged with government officials from various ministries, experts from the University of Hargeisa, international organizations like the FAO and members of agro-pastoral communities to learn more about rangeland health. We then selected the West Golis as our region of interest with a majority pastoral community and relative ease of access. Employing the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and using geospatial and earth observation data allowed us to identify an initial group of potential positive deviants illustrated as green circles in Figure 1 below.

From Insights to Action: Amplifying Positive Deviance within Somali Rangelands
Figure 1: Measuring the vegetation health within 5 km community buffer zones based on SAVI.

Following the identification of potential positive deviants, we engaged with 18 pastoral communities from the Togdheer, Awdal, and Maroodijeex regions to validate whether the positive deviants we found using earth observation data were indeed doing better than the other communities.

The primary objective of the fieldwork was to uncover the existing practices and strategies that could explain the outperformance of positively-deviant communities compared to other communities. The research team identified a range of strategies, including soil and water conservation techniques, locally-produced pesticides, and reseeding practices as summarized in Figure 2.

From Insights to Action
Figure 2: Strategies and practices that emerged from the fieldwork

Data-Powered Positive Deviance is not just about identifying outperformers and their successful practices. The real value lies in the diffusion, adoption and adaptation of these practices by individuals, groups or communities facing similar challenges. For this to succeed, both the positive deviants and those learning about their practices must take ownership and drive the process. Merely presenting the uncommon but successful practices of positive deviants to others will not work. The secret to success is in empowering the community to take charge, overcome challenges, and leverage their own resources and capabilities to effect change…(More)”.

Integrating Social Media into Biodiversity Databases: The Next Big Step?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Muhammad Osama: “Digital technologies and social media have transformed ecology and conservation biology data collection. Traditional biodiversity monitoring often relies on field surveys, which can be time-consuming and biased toward rural habitats.

The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) serves as a key repository for biodiversity data, but it faces challenges such as delayed data availability and underrepresentation of urban habitats.

Social media platforms have become valuable tools for rapid data collection, enabling users to share georeferenced observations instantly, reducing time lags associated with traditional methods. The widespread use of smartphones with cameras allows individuals to document wildlife sightings in real-time, enhancing biodiversity monitoring. Integrating social media data with traditional ecological datasets offers significant advancements, particularly in tracking species distributions in urban areas.

In this paper, the authors evaluated the Jersey tiger moth’s habitat usage by comparing occurrence data from social media platforms (Instagram and Flickr) with traditional records from GBIF and iNaturalist. They hypothesized that social media data would reveal significant JTM occurrences in urban environments, which may be underrepresented in traditional datasets…(More)”.

The Language Data Space (LDS)

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

European Commission: “… welcomes launch of the Alliance for Language Technologies European Digital Infrastructure Consortium (ALT-EDIC) and the Language Data Space (LDS).

Aimed at addressing the shortage of European language data needed for training large language models, these projects are set to revolutionise multilingual Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems across the EU.

By offering services in all EU languages, the initiatives are designed to break down language barriers, providing better, more accessible solutions for smaller businesses within the EU. This effort not only aims to preserve the EU’s rich cultural and linguistic heritage in the digital age but also strengthens Europe’s quest for tech sovereignty. Formed in February 2024, the ALT-EDIC includes 17 participating Member States and 9 observer Member States and regions, making it one of the pioneering European Digital Infrastructure Consortia.

The LDS, part of the Common European Data Spaces, is crucial for increasing data availability for AI development in Europe. Developed by the Commission and funded by the DIGITAL programme,  this project aims to create a cohesive marketplace for language data. This will enhance the collection and sharing of multilingual data to support European large language models. Initially accessible to selected institutions and companies, the project aims to eventually involve all European public and private stakeholders.

Find more information about the Alliance for Language Technologies European Digital Infrastructure Consortium (ALT-EDIC) and the Language Data Space (LDS)…(More)”

On Democratic Organizing and Organization Theory

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Julie Battilana, Christine M. Beckman, and Julie Yen: “As threats to democracy endanger the rights and freedoms of people around the world, scholars are increasingly interrogating the role that organizations play in shaping democratic and authoritarian societies. Just as societies can be more or less democratic, so, too, can organizations. This essay, in honor of ASQ’s 70th volume, argues for a deeper focus in organizational research on the extent to which organizations themselves are democratic and the outcomes associated with these varied models of organizing. First, we provide a framework for considering the extent to which organizations are democratically organized, accounting for the varied ways in which workers can participate in their organizations. Second, we call for research on the outcomes associated with democratic organizing at both the organizational and societal levels. We build from research arguing that the extent to which workers participate in organizational decision making can spill over to impact their expectations of and participation in civic life. Moving forward, we argue it is critical to recognize that questions of democracy and authoritarianism concern not only the political contexts in which organizations are embedded but also how organizations themselves are structured and contribute to society…(More)”

Panels giving scientific advice to Census Bureau disbanded by Trump administration

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Jeffrey Mervis: “…U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick has disbanded five outside panels that provide scientific and community advice to the U.S. Census Bureau and other federal statistical agencies just as preparations are ramping up for the country’s next decennial census, in 2030.

The dozens of demographers, statisticians, and public members on the five panels received nearly identical letters this week telling them that “the Secretary of Commerce has determined that the purposes for which the [committee] was established have been fulfilled, and the committee has been terminated effective February 28, 2025. Thank you for your service.”

Statistician Robert Santos, who last month resigned as Census Bureau director 3 years into his 5-year term, says he’s “terribly disappointed but not surprised” by the move, noting how a recent directive by President Donald Trump on gender identity has disrupted data collection for a host of federal surveys…(More)”.

New AI Collaboratives to take action on wildfires and food insecurity

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Google: “…last September we introduced AI Collaboratives, a new funding approach designed to unite public, private and nonprofit organizations, and researchers, to create AI-powered solutions to help people around the world.

Today, we’re sharing more about our first two focus areas for AI Collaboratives: Wildfires and Food Security.

Wildfires are a global crisis, claiming more than 300,000 lives due to smoke exposure annually and causing billions of dollars in economic damage. …Google.org has convened more than 15 organizations, including Earth Fire Alliance and Moore Foundation, to help in this important effort. By coordinating funding and integrating cutting-edge science, emerging technology and on-the-ground applications, we can provide collaborators with the tools they need to identify and track wildfires in near real time; quantify wildfire risk; shift more acreage to beneficial fires; and ultimately reduce the damage caused by catastrophic wildfires.

Nearly one-third of the world’s population faces moderate or severe food insecurity due to extreme weather, conflict and economic shocks. The AI Collaborative: Food Security will strengthen the resilience of global food systems and improve food security for the world’s most vulnerable populations through AI technologies, collaborative research, data-sharing and coordinated action. To date, 10 organizations have joined us in this effort, and we’ll share more updates soon…(More)”.

Expanding the Horizons of Collective Artificial Intelligence (CAI): From Individual Nudges to Relational Cognition

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Blog by Evelien Verschroeven: “As AI continues to evolve, it is essential to move beyond focusing solely on individual behavior changes. The individual input — whether through behavior, data, or critical content — remains important. New data and fresh perspectives are necessary for AI to continue learning, growing, and improving its relevance. However, as we head into what some are calling the golden years of AI, it’s critical to acknowledge a potential challenge: within five years, it is predicted that 50% of AI-generated content will be based on AI-created material, creating a risk of inbreeding where AI learns from itself, rather than from the diversity of human experience and knowledge.

Platforms like Google’s AI for Social Good and Unanimous AI’s Swarm play pivotal roles in breaking this cycle. By encouraging the aggregation of real-world data, they add new content that can influence and shape AI’s evolution. While they focus on individual data contributions, they also help keep AI systems grounded in real-world scenarios, ensuring that the content remains critical and diverse.

However, human oversight is key. AI systems, even with the best intentions, are still learning from patterns that humans provide. It’s essential that AI continues to receive diverse human input, so that its understanding remains grounded in real-world perspectives. AI should be continuously checked and guided by human creativity, critical thinking, and social contexts, to ensure that it doesn’t become isolated or too self-referential.

As we continue advancing AI, it is crucial to embrace relational cognition and collective intelligence. This approach will allow AI to address both individual and collective needs, enhancing not only personal development but also strengthening social bonds and fostering more resilient, adaptive communities…(More)”.

An immersive technologies policy primer

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

OECD Policy Primer: “Immersive technologies, such as augmented reality, digital twins and virtual worlds, offer innovative ways to interact with information and the environment by engaging one’s senses. This paper explores potential benefits of these technologies, from innovative commercial applications to addressing societal challenges. It also highlights potential risks, such as extensive data collection, mental or physical risks from misuse, and emerging cyber threats. It outlines policy opportunities and challenges in maximising these benefits while mitigating risks, with real-world use cases in areas like remote healthcare and education for people with disabilities. The paper emphasises the critical role of anticipatory governance and international collaboration in shaping the human-centric and values-based development and use of immersive technologies…(More)”.