Report by Sara Marcucci and Stefaan Verhulst: “Migration is a complex, dynamic issue, shaped by interconnected drivers like climate change, political shifts, and economic instability. Traditional migration policies often fall short, reacting to events after they unfold. In a rapidly changing world, anticipating migration trends is essential for developing responsive, proactive, and informed policies that address emerging challenges before they escalate. “Building a Policy Compass: Navigating Future Migration with Anticipatory Methods” introduces a suite of methods that aim to shift migration policy toward evidence-based, forward-looking decisions. This report, published for the Big Data for Migration Alliance, provides an overview of the challenges and criteria to consider when selecting and using anticipatory methods for migration policy.
To guide policymakers, the report organizes these methods into a taxonomy based on three categories:
- Experience-Based Methods: These capture lived experiences through approaches like narrative interviews and participatory action research. They ground migration policy in the perspectives of those directly affected by it.
- Expertise-Based Methods: Using specialized knowledge from migration experts, methods such as expert panels or Delphi processes can inform nuanced policy decisions.
- Exploration-Based Methods: These methods, including scenario planning and wildcards analysis, encourage creative, out-of-the-box thinking for addressing unexpected migration challenges.
The report emphasizes that not every method is suited to all migration contexts and offers eight criteria to guide method selection…(More)”.