Article by Wouter Lammers et al: “This article investigates how certainty and timing of evidence introduction impact the uptake of evidence by policy-makers in collective deliberations. Little is known about how experts or researchers should time the introduction of uncertain evidence for policy-makers. With a computational model based on the Hegselmann–Krause opinion dynamics model, we simulate how policy-makers update their opinions in light of new evidence. We illustrate the use of our model with two examples in which timing and certainty matter for policy-making: intelligence analysts scouting potential terrorist activity and food safety inspections of chicken meat. Our computations indicate that evidence should come early to convince policy-makers, regardless of how certain it is. Even if the evidence is quite certain, it will not convince all policy-makers. Next to its substantive contribution, the article also showcases the methodological innovation that agent-based models can bring for a better understanding of the science–policy nexus. The model can be endlessly adapted to generate hypotheses and simulate interactions that cannot be empirically tested…(More)”.
How to contribute:
Did you come across – or create – a compelling project/report/book/app at the leading edge of innovation in governance?
Share it with us at info@thelivinglib.org so that we can add it to the Collection!
About the Curator
Get the latest news right in you inbox
Subscribe to curated findings and actionable knowledge from The Living Library, delivered to your inbox every Friday
Related articles
DATA
A Global Relaunch of RD4C.org to Better Advance Responsible Data for Every Child, Everywhere
Posted in July 17, 2025 by Stefaan Verhulst
INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATION
Augmented foresight
Posted in July 17, 2025 by Stefaan Verhulst
artificial intelligence
A foundation model to predict and capture human cognition
Posted in July 17, 2025 by Stefaan Verhulst