Article by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen: “We are releasing a revised version of “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts About the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence.” Using payroll data from ADP, we document six facts about how employment has evolved since the release of ChatGPT, with particular attention to differences by age and AI exposure.
The updated data strengthen several patterns we first documented in August 2025. Most notably, the employment gap for young workers in highly AI-exposed occupations has continued to widen through mid-2026.
Our six main facts
- We do not see widespread, economy-wide job displacement associated with AI.
- However, young workers in AI-exposed occupations are increasingly falling behind their less-exposed peers. Employment among workers ages 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations now stands about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with employment among similarly aged workers in less-exposed occupations. Experienced workers show no comparable gap.
- This divergence has widened steadily since we first documented it in August 2025: by this same measure, the shortfall was 15% at the July 2025 data vintage and is 19% as of June 2026.
- The adjustment appears to operate primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.
- The declines are concentrated in occupations where AI usage tends to automate human tasks. In occupations where AI is used more to complement workers, employment is flat or rising, particularly among more experienced workers.
- So far, adjustment is showing up primarily in employment rather than base pay…(More)”.
