Is peer review failing its peer review?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by First Principles: “Ivan Oransky doesn’t sugar-coat his answer when asked about the state of academic peer review: “Things are pretty bad.”

As a distinguished journalist in residence at New York University and co-founder of Retraction Watch – a site that chronicles the growing number of papers being retracted from academic journals – Oransky is better positioned than just about anyone to make such a blunt assessment. 

He elaborates further, citing a range of factors contributing to the current state of affairs. These include the publish-or-perish mentality, chatbot ghostwriting, predatory journals, plagiarism, an overload of papers, a shortage of reviewers, and weak incentives to attract and retain reviewers.

“Things are pretty bad and they have been bad for some time because the incentives are completely misaligned,” Oranksy told FirstPrinciples in a call from his NYU office. 

Things are so bad that a new world record was set in 2023: more than 10,000 research papers were retracted from academic journals. In a troubling development, 19 journals closed after being inundated by a barrage of fake research from so-called “paper mills” that churn out the scientific equivalent of clickbait, and one scientist holds the current record of 213 retractions to his name. 

“The numbers don’t lie: Scientific publishing has a problem, and it’s getting worse,” Oransky and Retraction Watch co-founder Adam Marcus wrote in a recent opinion piece for The Washington Post. “Vigilance against fraudulent or defective research has always been necessary, but in recent years the sheer amount of suspect material has threatened to overwhelm publishers.”..(More)”.

The problem of ‘model collapse’: how a lack of human data limits AI progress

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Michael Peel: “The use of computer-generated data to train artificial intelligence models risks causing them to produce nonsensical results, according to new research that highlights looming challenges to the emerging technology. 

Leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Microsoft, have tested the use of “synthetic” data — information created by AI systems to then also train large language models (LLMs) — as they reach the limits of human-made material that can improve the cutting-edge technology.

Research published in Nature on Wednesday suggests the use of such data could lead to the rapid degradation of AI models. One trial using synthetic input text about medieval architecture descended into a discussion of jackrabbits after fewer than 10 generations of output. 

The work underlines why AI developers have hurried to buy troves of human-generated data for training — and raises questions of what will happen once those finite sources are exhausted. 

“Synthetic data is amazing if we manage to make it work,” said Ilia Shumailov, lead author of the research. “But what we are saying is that our current synthetic data is probably erroneous in some ways. The most surprising thing is how quickly this stuff happens.”

The paper explores the tendency of AI models to collapse over time because of the inevitable accumulation and amplification of mistakes from successive generations of training.

The speed of the deterioration is related to the severity of shortcomings in the design of the model, the learning process and the quality of data used. 

The early stages of collapse typically involve a “loss of variance”, which means majority subpopulations in the data become progressively over-represented at the expense of minority groups. In late-stage collapse, all parts of the data may descend into gibberish…(More)”.

Citizens should be asked to do more

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Martin Wolf: “In an excellent “Citizens’ White Paper”, in partnership with participation charity Involve, Demos describes the needed revolution as follows, “We don’t just need new policies for these challenging times. We need new ways to tackle the policy challenges we face — from national missions to everyday policymaking. We need new ways to understand and negotiate what the public will tolerate. We need new ways to build back trust in politicians”. In sum, it states, “if government wants to be trusted by the people, it must itself start to trust the people.”

Bar chart of agreement that public should be involved in decision making on these issues (%) showing the public has clear ideas on where it should be most involved

The fundamental aim is to change the perception of government from something that politicians and bureaucrats do to us into an activity that involves not everyone, which is impossible, but ordinary people selected by lot. This, as I have noted, would be the principle of the jury imported into public life.

How might this work? The idea is to select representative groups of ordinary people affected by policies into official discussion on problems and solutions. This could be at the level of central, devolved or local government. The participants would not just be asked for opinions, but be actively engaged in considering issues and shaping (though not making) decisions upon them. The paper details a number of different approaches — panels, assemblies, juries, workshops and wider community conversations. Which would be appropriate would depend on the task…(More)”.

Illuminating ‘the ugly side of science’: fresh incentives for reporting negative results

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Rachel Brazil: “Editor-in-chief Sarahanne Field describes herself and her team at the Journal of Trial & Error as wanting to highlight the “ugly side of science — the parts of the process that have gone wrong”.

She clarifies that the editorial board of the journal, which launched in 2020, isn’t interested in papers in which “you did a shitty study and you found nothing. We’re interested in stuff that was done methodologically soundly, but still yielded a result that was unexpected.” These types of result — which do not prove a hypothesis or could yield unexplained outcomes — often simply go unpublished, explains Field, who is also an open-science researcher at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. Along with Stefan Gaillard, one of the journal’s founders, she hopes to change that.

Calls for researchers to publish failed studies are not new. The ‘file-drawer problem’ — the stacks of unpublished, negative results that most researchers accumulate — was first described in 1979 by psychologist Robert Rosenthal. He argued that this leads to publication bias in the scientific record: the gap of missing unsuccessful results leads to overemphasis on the positive results that do get published…(More)”.

When A.I. Fails the Language Test, Who Is Left Out of the Conversation?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Sara Ruberg: “While the use of A.I. has exploded in the West, much of the rest of the world has been left out of the conversation since most of the technology is trained in English. A.I. experts worry that the language gap could exacerbate technological inequities, and that it could leave many regions and cultures behind.

A delay of access to good technology of even a few years, “can potentially lead to a few decades of economic delay,” said Sang Truong, a Ph.D. candidate at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at Stanford University on the team that built and tested a Vietnamese language model against others.

The tests his team ran found that A.I. tools across the board could get facts and diction wrong when working with Vietnamese, likely because it is a “low-resource” language by industry standards, which means that there aren’t sufficient data sets and content available online for the A.I. model to learn from.

Low-resource languages are spoken by tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of people around the world, but they yield less digital data because A.I. tech development and online engagement is centered in the United States and China. Other low-resource languages include Hindi, Bengali and Swahili, as well as lesser-known dialects spoken by smaller populations around the world.

An analysis of top websites by W3Techs, a tech survey company, found that English makes up over 60 percent of the internet’s language data. While English is widely spoken globally, native English speakers make up about 5 percent of the population, according to Ethnologue, a research organization that collects language data. Mandarin and Spanish are other examples of languages with a significant online presence and reliable digital data sets.

Academic institutions, grass-roots organizations and volunteer efforts are playing catch-up to build resources for speakers of languages who aren’t as well represented in the digital landscape.

Lelapa AI, based in Johannesburg, is one such company leading efforts on the African continent. The South African-based start-up is developing multilingual A.I. products for people and businesses in Africa…(More)”.

AI firms will soon exhaust most of the internet’s data

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by The Economist: “One approach is to focus on data quality rather than quantity. ai labs do not simply train their models on the entire internet. They filter and sequence data to maximise how much their models learn. Naveen Rao of Databricks, an ai firm, says that this is the “main differentiator” between ai models on the market. “True information” about the world obviously matters; so does lots of “reasoning”. That makes academic textbooks, for example, especially valuable. But setting the balance between data sources remains something of a dark art. What is more, the ordering in which the system encounters different types of data matters too. Lump all the data on one topic, like maths, at the end of the training process, and your model may become specialised at maths but forget some other concepts.

These considerations can get even more complex when the data are not just on different subjects but in different forms. In part because of the lack of new textual data, leading models like Openai’s gpt-4o and Google’s Gemini are now let loose on image, video and audio files as well as text during their self-supervised learning. Training on video is hardest given how dense with data points video files are. Current models typically look at a subset of frames to simplify things.

Whatever models are used, ownership is increasingly recognised as an issue. The material used in training llms is often copyrighted and used without consent from, or payment to, the rights holders. Some ai models peep behind paywalls. Model creators claim this sort of thing falls under the “fair use” exemption in American copyright law. ai models should be allowed to read copyrighted material when they learn, just as humans can, they say. But as Benedict Evans, a technology analyst, has put it, “a difference in scale” can lead to “a difference in principle”…

It is clear that access to more data—whether culled from specialist sources, generated synthetically or provided by human experts—is key to maintaining rapid progress in ai. Like oilfields, the most accessible data reserves have been depleted. The challenge now is to find new ones—or sustainable alternatives…(More)”.

The Risks of Empowering “Citizen Data Scientists”

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Reid Blackman and Tamara Sipes: “Until recently, the prevailing understanding of artificial intelligence (AI) and its subset machine learning (ML) was that expert data scientists and AI engineers were the only people that could push AI strategy and implementation forward. That was a reasonable view. After all, data science generally, and AI in particular, is a technical field requiring, among other things, expertise that requires many years of education and training to obtain.

Fast forward to today, however, and the conventional wisdom is rapidly changing. The advent of “auto-ML” — software that provides methods and processes for creating machine learning code — has led to calls to “democratize” data science and AI. The idea is that these tools enable organizations to invite and leverage non-data scientists — say, domain data experts, team members very familiar with the business processes, or heads of various business units — to propel their AI efforts.

In theory, making data science and AI more accessible to non-data scientists (including technologists who are not data scientists) can make a lot of business sense. Centralized and siloed data science units can fail to appreciate the vast array of data the organization has and the business problems that it can solve, particularly with multinational organizations with hundreds or thousands of business units distributed across several continents. Moreover, those in the weeds of business units know the data they have, the problems they’re trying to solve, and can, with training, see how that data can be leveraged to solve those problems. The opportunities are significant.

In short, with great business insight, augmented with auto-ML, can come great analytic responsibility. At the same time, we cannot forget that data science and AI are, in fact, very difficult, and there’s a very long journey from having data to solving a problem. In this article, we’ll lay out the pros and cons of integrating citizen data scientists into your AI strategy and suggest methods for optimizing success and minimizing risks…(More)”.

AI mass surveillance at Paris Olympics

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Anne Toomey McKenna: “The 2024 Paris Olympics is drawing the eyes of the world as thousands of athletes and support personnel and hundreds of thousands of visitors from around the globe converge in France. It’s not just the eyes of the world that will be watching. Artificial intelligence systems will be watching, too.

Government and private companies will be using advanced AI tools and other surveillance tech to conduct pervasive and persistent surveillance before, during and after the Games. The Olympic world stage and international crowds pose increased security risks so significant that in recent years authorities and critics have described the Olympics as the “world’s largest security operations outside of war.”

The French government, hand in hand with the private tech sector, has harnessed that legitimate need for increased security as grounds to deploy technologically advanced surveillance and data gathering tools. Its surveillance plans to meet those risks, including controversial use of experimental AI video surveillance, are so extensive that the country had to change its laws to make the planned surveillance legal.

The plan goes beyond new AI video surveillance systems. According to news reports, the prime minister’s office has negotiated a provisional decree that is classified to permit the government to significantly ramp up traditional, surreptitious surveillance and information gathering tools for the duration of the Games. These include wiretapping; collecting geolocation, communications and computer data; and capturing greater amounts of visual and audio data…(More)”.

Community consent: neither a ceiling nor a floor

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Jasmine McNealy: “The 23andMe breach and the Golden State Killer case are two of the more “flashy” cases, but questions of consent, especially the consent of all of those affected by biodata collection and analysis in more mundane or routine health and medical research projects, are just as important. The communities of people affected have expectations about their privacy and the possible impacts of inferences that could be made about them in data processing systems. Researchers must, then, acquire community consent when attempting to work with networked biodata. 

Several benefits of community consent exist, especially for marginalized and vulnerable populations. These benefits include:

  • Ensuring that information about the research project spreads throughout the community,
  • Removing potential barriers that might be created by resistance from community members,
  • Alleviating the possible concerns of individuals about the perspectives of community leaders, and 
  • Allowing the recruitment of participants using methods most salient to the community.

But community consent does not replace individual consent and limits exist for both community and individual consent. Therefore, within the context of a biorepository, understanding whether community consent might be a ceiling or a floor requires examining governance and autonomy…(More)”.

The Data That Powers A.I. Is Disappearing Fast

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Kevin Roose: “For years, the people building powerful artificial intelligence systems have used enormous troves of text, images and videos pulled from the internet to train their models.

Now, that data is drying up.

Over the past year, many of the most important web sources used for training A.I. models have restricted the use of their data, according to a study published this week by the Data Provenance Initiative, an M.I.T.-led research group.

The study, which looked at 14,000 web domains that are included in three commonly used A.I. training data sets, discovered an “emerging crisis in consent,” as publishers and online platforms have taken steps to prevent their data from being harvested.

The researchers estimate that in the three data sets — called C4, RefinedWeb and Dolma — 5 percent of all data, and 25 percent of data from the highest-quality sources, has been restricted. Those restrictions are set up through the Robots Exclusion Protocol, a decades-old method for website owners to prevent automated bots from crawling their pages using a file called robots.txt.

The study also found that as much as 45 percent of the data in one set, C4, had been restricted by websites’ terms of service.

“We’re seeing a rapid decline in consent to use data across the web that will have ramifications not just for A.I. companies, but for researchers, academics and noncommercial entities,” said Shayne Longpre, the study’s lead author, in an interview.

Data is the main ingredient in today’s generative A.I. systems, which are fed billions of examples of text, images and videos. Much of that data is scraped from public websites by researchers and compiled in large data sets, which can be downloaded and freely used, or supplemented with data from other sources…(More)”.