Building a Policy Compass: Navigating Future Migration with Anticipatory Methods

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Report by Sara Marcucci and Stefaan Verhulst: “Migration is a complex, dynamic issue, shaped by interconnected drivers like climate change, political shifts, and economic instability. Traditional migration policies often fall short, reacting to events after they unfold. In a rapidly changing world, anticipating migration trends is essential for developing responsive, proactive, and informed policies that address emerging challenges before they escalate. “Building a Policy Compass: Navigating Future Migration with Anticipatory Methods” introduces a suite of methods that aim to shift migration policy toward evidence-based, forward-looking decisions. This report, published for the Big Data for Migration Alliance, provides an overview of the challenges and criteria to consider when selecting and using anticipatory methods for migration policy.

To guide policymakers, the report organizes these methods into a taxonomy based on three categories:

  • Experience-Based Methods: These capture lived experiences through approaches like narrative interviews and participatory action research. They ground migration policy in the perspectives of those directly affected by it.
  • Expertise-Based Methods: Using specialized knowledge from migration experts, methods such as expert panels or Delphi processes can inform nuanced policy decisions.
  • Exploration-Based Methods: These methods, including scenario planning and wildcards analysis, encourage creative, out-of-the-box thinking for addressing unexpected migration challenges.

The report emphasizes that not every method is suited to all migration contexts and offers eight criteria to guide method selection…(More)”.

Shifting Patterns of Social Interaction: Exploring the Social Life of Urban Spaces Through A.I.

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Arianna Salazar-Miranda, et al: “We analyze changes in pedestrian behavior over a 30-year period in four urban public spaces located in New York, Boston, and Philadelphia. Building on William Whyte’s observational work from 1980, where he manually recorded pedestrian behaviors, we employ computer vision and deep learning techniques to examine video footage from 1979-80 and 2008-10. Our analysis measures changes in walking speed, lingering behavior, group sizes, and group formation. We find that the average walking speed has increased by 15%, while the time spent lingering in these spaces has halved across all locations. Although the percentage of pedestrians walking alone remained relatively stable (from 67% to 68%), the frequency of group encounters declined, indicating fewer interactions in public spaces. This shift suggests that urban residents increasingly view streets as thoroughfares rather than as social spaces, which has important implications for the role of public spaces in fostering social engagement…(More)”.

Courts in Buenos Aires are using ChatGPT to draft rulings

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Victoria Mendizabal: “In May, the Public Prosecution Service of the City of Buenos Aires began using generative AI to predict rulings for some public employment cases related to salary demands.

Since then, justice employees at the office for contentious administrative and tax matters of the city of Buenos Aires have uploaded case documents into ChatGPT, which analyzes patterns, offers a preliminary classification from a catalog of templates, and drafts a decision. So far, ChatGPT has been used for 20 legal sentences.

The use of generative AI has cut down the time it takes to draft a sentence from an hour to about 10 minutes, according to recent studies conducted by the office.

“We, as professionals, are not the main characters anymore. We have become editors,” Juan Corvalán, deputy attorney general in contentious administrative and tax matters, told Rest of World.

The introduction of generative AI tools has improved efficiency at the office, but it has also prompted concerns within the judiciary and among independent legal experts about possiblebiases, the treatment of personal data, and the emergence of hallucinations. Similar concerns have echoed beyond Argentina’s borders.

“We, as professionals, are not the main characters anymore. We have become editors.”

“Any inconsistent use, such as sharing sensitive information, could have a considerable legal cost,” Lucas Barreiro, a lawyer specializing in personal data protection and a member of Privaia, a civil association dedicated to the defense of human rights in the digital era, told Rest of World.

Judges in the U.S. have voiced skepticism about the use of generative AI in the courts, with Manhattan Federal Judge Edgardo Ramos saying earlier this year that “ChatGPT has been shown to be an unreliable resource.” In Colombia and the Netherlands, the use of ChatGPT by judges was criticized by local experts. But not everyone is concerned: A court of appeals judge in the U.K. who used ChatGPT to write part of a judgment said that it was “jolly useful.”

For Corvalán, the move to generative AI is the culmination of a years-long transformation within the City of Buenos Aires’ attorney general’s office.In 2017, Corvalán put together a group of developers to train an AI-powered system called PROMETEA, which was intended to automate judicial tasks and expedite case proceedings. The team used more than 300,000 rulings and case files related to housing protection, public employment bonuses, enforcement of unpaid fines, and denial of cab licenses to individuals with criminal records…(More)”.

Boosting: Empowering Citizens with Behavioral Science

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Stefan M. Herzog and Ralph Hertwig: “Behavioral public policy came to the fore with the introduction of nudging, which aims to steer behavior while maintaining freedom of choice. Responding to critiques of nudging (e.g., that it does not promote agency and relies on benevolent choice architects), other behavioral policy approaches focus on empowering citizens. Here we review boosting, a behavioral policy approach that aims to foster people’s agency, self-control, and ability to make informed decisions. It is grounded in evidence from behavioral science showing that human decision making is not as notoriously flawed as the nudging approach assumes. We argue that addressing the challenges of our time—such as climate change, pandemics, and the threats to liberal democracies and human autonomy posed by digital technologies and choice architectures—calls for fostering capable and engaged citizens as a first line of response to complement slower, systemic approaches…(More)”.

National biodiversity data infrastructures: ten essential functions for science, policy, and practice 

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Anton Güntsch et al: “Today, at the international level, powerful data portals are available to biodiversity researchers and policymakers, offering increasingly robust computing and network capacities and capable data services for internationally agreed-on standards. These accelerate individual and complex workflows to map data-driven research processes or even to make them possible for the first time. At the national level, however, and alongside these international developments, national infrastructures are needed to take on tasks that cannot be easily funded or addressed internationally. To avoid gaps, as well as redundancies in the research landscape, national tasks and responsibilities must be clearly defined to align efforts with core priorities. In the present article, we outline 10 essential functions of national biodiversity data infrastructures. They serve as key providers, facilitators, mediators, and platforms for effective biodiversity data management, integration, and analysis that require national efforts to foster biodiversity science, policy, and practice…(More)”.

Privacy guarantees for personal mobility data in humanitarian response

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Nitin Kohli, Emily Aiken & Joshua E. Blumenstock: “Personal mobility data from mobile phones and other sensors are increasingly used to inform policymaking during pandemics, natural disasters, and other humanitarian crises. However, even aggregated mobility traces can reveal private information about individual movements to potentially malicious actors. This paper develops and tests an approach for releasing private mobility data, which provides formal guarantees over the privacy of the underlying subjects. Specifically, we (1) introduce an algorithm for constructing differentially private mobility matrices and derive privacy and accuracy bounds on this algorithm; (2) use real-world data from mobile phone operators in Afghanistan and Rwanda to show how this algorithm can enable the use of private mobility data in two high-stakes policy decisions: pandemic response and the distribution of humanitarian aid; and (3) discuss practical decisions that need to be made when implementing this approach, such as how to optimally balance privacy and accuracy. Taken together, these results can help enable the responsible use of private mobility data in humanitarian response…(More)”.

Review of relevance of the OECD Recommendation on ICTs and the Environment

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

OECD Policy Report: “The OECD Recommendation on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and the Environment was adopted in 2010 and recognised the link between digital technologies and environmental sustainability. Today, advances in digital technologies underscore their growing role in achieving climate resilience. At the same time, digital technologies and their underlying infrastructure have an environmental footprint that must be managed. This report takes stock of technology and policy developments since the adoption of the Recommendation and provides a gap analysis and assessment of its relevance, concluding that the Recommendation remains relevant and identifying areas for revision…(More)”.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Report by the National Academies: “AI technology is at an inflection point: a surge of technological progress has driven the rapid development and adoption of generative AI systems, such as ChatGPT, which are capable of generating text, images, or other content based on user requests.

This technical progress is likely to continue in coming years, with the potential to complement or replace human labor in certain tasks and reshape job markets. However, it is difficult to predict exactly which new AI capabilities might emerge, and when these advances might occur.

This National Academies’ report evaluates recent advances in AI technology and their implications for economic productivity, job stability, and income inequality, identifying research opportunities and data needs to equip workers and policymakers to flexibly respond to AI developments…(More)”

Using generative AI for crisis foresight

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Antonin Kenens and Josip Ivanovic: “What if the next time you discuss a complex future and its potential crises, it could be transformed from a typical meeting into an immersive experience? That’s exactly what we did at a recent strategy meeting of UNDP’s Crisis Bureau and Bureau for Policy and Programme Support.  

In an environment where workshops and meetings can often feel monotonous, we aimed to break the mold. By using AI-generated videos, we brought our discussion to life, reflecting the realities of developing nations and immersing participants in the critical issues affecting our region.  In today’s rapidly changing world, the ability to anticipate and prepare for potential crises is more crucial than ever. Crisis foresight involves identifying and analyzing possible future crises to develop strategies that can mitigate their impact. This proactive approach, highlighted multiple times in the pact for the future, is essential for effective governance and sustainable development in Europe and Central Asia and the rest of the world.

graphical user interface
Visualization of the consequences of pollution in Joraland.

Our idea behind creating AI-generated videos was to provide a vivid, immersive experience that would engage viewers and stimulate active participation by sharing their reflections on the challenges and opportunities in developing countries. We presented fictional yet relatable scenarios to gather the participants of the meeting around a common view and create a sense of urgency and importance around UNDP’s strategic priorities and initiatives. 

This approach not only captured attention but also sparked deeper engagement and thought-provoking conversations…(More)”.

What AI Can’t Do for Democracy

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Essay by Daniel Berliner: “In short, there is increasing optimism among both theorists and practitioners over the potential for technology-enabled civic engagement to rejuvenate or deepen democracy. Is this optimism justified?

The answer depends on how we think about what civic engagement can do. Political representatives are often unresponsive to the preferences of ordinary people. Their misperceptions of public needs and preferences are partly to blame, but the sources of democratic dysfunction are much deeper and more structural than information alone. Working to ensure many more “citizens’ voices are truly heard” will thus do little to improve government responsiveness in contexts where the distribution of power means that policymakers have no incentive to do what citizens say. And as some critics have argued, it can even distract from recognizing and remedying other problems, creating a veneer of legitimacy—what health policy expert Sherry Arnstein once famously derided as mere “window dressing.”

Still, there are plenty of cases where contributions from citizens can highlight new problems that need addressing, new perspectives by which issues are understood, and new ideas for solving public problems—from administrative agencies seeking public input to city governments seeking to resolve resident complaints and citizens’ assemblies deliberating on climate policy. But even in these and other contexts, there is reason to doubt AI’s usefulness across the board. The possibilities of AI for civic engagement depend crucially on what exactly it is that policymakers want to learn from the public. For some types of learning, applications of AI can make major contributions to enhance the efficiency and efficacy of information processing. For others, there is no getting around the fundamental needs for human attention and context-specific knowledge in order to adequately make sense of public voices. We need to better understand these differences to avoid wasting resources on tools that might not deliver useful information…(More)”.