AI in Global Development Playbook

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

USAID Playbook: “…When used effectively and responsibly, AI holds the potential to accelerate progress on sustainable development and close digital divides, but it also poses risks that could further impede progress toward these goals. With the right enabling environment and ecosystem of actors, AI can enhance efficiency and accelerate development outcomes in sectors such as health, education, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and delivering public services. The United States aims to ensure that the benefits of AI are shared equitably across the globe.

Distilled from consultations with hundreds of government officials, non-governmental organizations, technology firms and startups, and individuals from around the world, the AI in Global Development Playbook is a roadmap to develop the capacity, ecosystems, frameworks, partnerships, applications, and institutions to leverage safe, secure, and trustworthy AI for sustainable development.

The United States’ current efforts are grounded in the belief that AI, when developed and deployed responsibly, can be a powerful force for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and addressing some of the world’s most urgent challenges. Looking ahead, the United States will continue to support low- and middle-income countries through funding, advocacy, and convening efforts–collectively navigating the complexities of the digital age and working toward a future in which the benefits of technological development are widely shared.

This Playbook seeks to underscore AI as a uniquely global opportunity with far-reaching impacts and potential risks. It highlights that safe, secure, and trustworthy design, deployment, and use of AI is not only possible but essential. Recognizing that international cooperation and multi-stakeholder partnerships are key in achieving progress, we invite others to contribute their expertise, resources, and perspectives to enrich and expand this framework.

The true measure of progress in responsible AI is not in the sophistication of our machines but in the quality of life the technology enhances. Together we can work toward ensuring the promise of AI is realized in service of this goal…(More)”

Wired Wisdom

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Book by Eszter Hargittai and John Palfrey: “Everyone has that one older relative who loves to post misinformation on social media. That older coworker who fell prey to a phishing attack. Or a parent who still can’t quite get the hang of using emoji in texts. By popular account, these incidents are typical of older generations who inevitably struggle with tech woes. But is that the full story?

Absolutely not, according to the findings of Internet researchers Eszter Hargittai and John Palfrey. Their eye-opening book on the Internet’s fastest-growing demographic offers a more nuanced picture—debunking common myths about older adults’ Internet use to offer hope and a necessary call to action. Incorporating original interviews and survey results from thousands of people sixty and over, Wired Wisdom shows that many, in fact, use technology in ways that put younger peers to shame. Over-sixties are often nimble online, and quicker to abandon social media platforms that don’t meet their needs. Despite being targeted more often, they also may be less likely to fall for scams than younger peers. And fake news actually fools fewer people over sixty, who have far more experience evaluating sources and detecting propaganda. Still, there are unseen risks and missed opportunities for this group. Hargittai and Palfrey show that our stereotypes can be hurdles—keeping us from building intergenerational support communities, aiding loved ones to adopt new technology that may improve their lives, and helping us all thrive.

Full of surprising insights, Wired Wisdom helps push readers beyond ageist assumptions, offers practical advice for older tech users and their communities, and ultimately questions what it really means to age well online—no matter your birthdate…(More)”

Why is it so hard to establish the death toll?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Smriti Mallapaty: “Given the uncertainty of counting fatalities during conflict, researchers use other ways to estimate mortality.

One common method uses household surveys, says Debarati Guha-Sapir, an epidemiologist who specializes in civil conflicts at the University of Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, and is based in Brussels. A sample of the population is asked how many people in their family have died over a specific period of time. This approach has been used to count deaths in conflicts elsewhere, including in Iraq3 and the Central African Republic4.

The situation in Gaza right now is not conducive to a survey, given the level of movement and displacement, say researchers. And it would be irresponsible to send data collectors into an active conflict and put their lives at risk, says Ball.

There are also ethical concerns around intruding on people who lack basic access to food and medication to ask about deaths in their families, says Jamaluddine. Surveys will have to wait for the conflict to end and movement to ease, say researchers.

Another approach is to compare multiple independent lists of fatalities and calculate mortality from the overlap between them. The Human Rights Data Analysis Group used this approach to estimate the number of people killed in Syria between 2011 and 2014. Jamaluddine hopes to use the ministry fatality data in conjunction with those posted on social media by several informal groups to estimate mortality in this way. But Guha-Sapir says this method relies on the population being stable and not moving around, which is often not the case in conflict-affected communities.

In addition to deaths immediately caused by the violence, some civilians die of the spread of infectious diseases, starvation or lack of access to health care. In February, Jamaluddine and her colleagues used modelling to make projections of excess deaths due to the war and found that, in a continued scenario of six months of escalated conflict, 68,650 people could die from traumatic injuries, 2,680 from non-communicable diseases such as cancer and 2,720 from infectious diseases — along with thousands more if an epidemic were to break out. On 30 July, the ministry declared a polio epidemic in Gaza after detecting the virus in sewage samples, and in mid-August it confirmed the first case of polio in 25 years, in a 10-month-old baby…

The longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to get reliable estimates, because “reports by survivors get worse as time goes by”, says Jon Pedersen, a demographer at !Mikro in Oslo, who advises international agencies on mortality estimates…(More)”.

Germany’s botched data revamp leaves economists ‘flying blind’

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Olaf Storbeck: “Germany’s statistical office has suspended some of its most important indicators after botching a data update, leaving citizens and economists in the dark at a time when the country is trying to boost flagging growth.

In a nation once famed for its punctuality and reliability, even its notoriously diligent beancounters have become part of a growing perception that “nothing works any more” as Germans moan about delayed trains, derelict roads and bridges, and widespread staff shortages.

“There used to be certain aspects in life that you could just rely on, and the fact that official statistics are published on time was one of them — not any more,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist of Commerzbank, adding that the suspended data was also closely watched by monetary policymakers and investors.

Since May the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has not updated time-series data for retail and wholesale sales, as well as revenue from the services sector, hospitality, car dealers and garages.

These indicators, which are published monthly and adjusted for seasonal changes, are a key component of GDP and crucial for assessing consumer demand in the EU’s largest economy.

Private consumption accounted for 52.7 per cent of German output in 2023. Retail sales made up 28 per cent of private consumption but shrank 3.4 per cent from a year earlier. Overall GDP declined 0.3 per cent last year, Destatis said.

The Wiesbaden-based authority, which was established in 1948, said the outages had been caused by IT issues and a complex methodological change in EU business statistics in a bid to boost accuracy.

Destatis has been working on the project since the EU directive in 2019, and the deadline for implementing the changes is December.

But a series of glitches, data issues and IT delays meant Destatis has been unable to publish retail sales and other services data for four months.

A key complication is that the revenues of companies that operate in both services and manufacturing will now be reported differently for each sector. In the past, all revenue was treated as either services or manufacturing, depending on which unit was bigger…(More)”

Second-Order Agency

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Paper by Cass Sunstein: “Many people prize agency; they want to make their own choices. Many people also prize second-order agency, by which they decide whether and when to exercise first-order agency. First-order agency can be an extraordinary benefit or an immense burden. When it is an extraordinary benefit, people might reject any kind of interference, or might welcome a nudge, or might seek some kind of boost, designed to increase their capacities. When first-order agency is an immense burden, people might also welcome a nudge or might make some kind of delegation (say, to an employer, a doctor, an algorithm, or a regulator). These points suggests that the line between active choosing and paternalism can be illusory. When private or public institutions override people’s desire not to exercise first-order agency, and thus reject people’s exercise of second-order agency, they are behaving paternalistically, through a form of choice-requiring paternalism. Choice-requiring paternalism may compromise second-order agency. It might not be very nice to do that…(More)”.

Utilizing big data without domain knowledge impacts public health decision-making

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Paper by Miao Zhang, Salman Rahman, Vishwali Mhasawade and Rumi Chunara: “…New data sources and AI methods for extracting information are increasingly abundant and relevant to decision-making across societal applications. A notable example is street view imagery, available in over 100 countries, and purported to inform built environment interventions (e.g., adding sidewalks) for community health outcomes. However, biases can arise when decision-making does not account for data robustness or relies on spurious correlations. To investigate this risk, we analyzed 2.02 million Google Street View (GSV) images alongside health, demographic, and socioeconomic data from New York City. Findings demonstrate robustness challenges; built environment characteristics inferred from GSV labels at the intracity level often do not align with ground truth. Moreover, as average individual-level behavior of physical inactivity significantly mediates the impact of built environment features by census tract, intervention on features measured by GSV would be misestimated without proper model specification and consideration of this mediation mechanism. Using a causal framework accounting for these mediators, we determined that intervening by improving 10% of samples in the two lowest tertiles of physical inactivity would lead to a 4.17 (95% CI 3.84–4.55) or 17.2 (95% CI 14.4–21.3) times greater decrease in the prevalence of obesity or diabetes, respectively, compared to the same proportional intervention on the number of crosswalks by census tract. This study highlights critical issues of robustness and model specification in using emergent data sources, showing the data may not measure what is intended, and ignoring mediators can result in biased intervention effect estimates…(More)”

Trust in official statistics remains high but there’s still work to do

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Ian Diamond (UK): “..I’m excited about the potential of new data sources, and I want everyone in the UK to have the skills to understand and use the stats they allow us to create. With this in mind, we’re launching a whole host of new projects to bring our stats to the people:

How to videos

To benefit from stats, and be confident that they are reliable, we need to understand more about the data they have been derived from and how to read and use them.

Our new set of video guides are a great place to start, covering topics such as why data matters to how the ONS de-identifies them and where we get them from.

They are all available to watch on our YouTube channel.

Playground survey

During the 2023/2024 school year, we teamed up with the BBC and the Micro:bit Foundation to give children in primary schools the opportunity to take part in a nationwide playground survey.

The BBC Micro:bit Playground Survey is a wonderful way for children to learn data skills at an early age, getting to grips with data collection and analysis in a way that is relevant to their everyday lives, in a familiar and fun setting.

If children become data-literate now, they will be well prepared to navigate and take advantage of the huge amounts of data that will no doubt play an important role in their adult lives.

Keep an eye out for the results in October.

Navigating numbers – the ONS data education programme

We’ve also been busy developing a data education programme for students in further education or sixth form.

Navigating numbers: how data are used to create statistics includes a series of five classroom toolkits, exploring topics such as gender pay gaps, inflation, and health.

Created with the support of the Association of Colleges (AoC), this learning resource is free for teachers to use and available for download on the ONS website.

The ONS’s educational webinar series: Bringing data to life

If you want to learn more about measuring the cost of living or our nation’s health, then our new webinar series has you covered. These and other topics will be brought to life in this new series of online events, launching in September 2024…(More)”

A Diamond in the Rough: How Energy Consumption Data Can Boost Artificial Intelligence Startups and Accelerate the Green Transition

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Policy brief by David Osimo and Anna Pizzamiglio: “…explores how the reuse of energy consumption data can foster a dynamic cleantech ecosystem and contribute to achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. Drawing on insights from EDDIE, a decentralised platform that standardises data formats and enhances data management across Europe, the brief outlines five key recommendations for shifting from a focus on data regulation to fostering innovation. These recommendations include: Enhancing User Experience, Nurturing the Cleantech Ecosystem, Strengthening Data Stewardship, Clarifying GDPR Guidelines, Eliminating Barriers to the Single Market…(More)”.

Making the Global Digital Compact a reality: Four steps to establish a responsible, inclusive and equitable data future.

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Stefaan Verhulst: “In September of this year, as world leaders assemble in New York for the 78th annual meeting of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, they will confront a weighty agenda. War and peace will be at the forefront of conversations, along with efforts to tackle climate change and the ongoing migration crisis. Alongside these usual topics, however, the gathered dignitaries will also turn their attention to digital governance.

In 2021, the UN Secretary General proposed that a Global Digital Compact (GDC) be agreed upon that would “outline shared principles for an open, free and secure digital future for all”. The development of this Compact, which builds on a range of adjacent work streams at the UN, including activities related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), has now reached a vital inflection point. After a wide-ranging process of consultation, the General Assembly is expected to ratify the latest draft of the Digital Compact, which contains five key objectives and a commitment to thirteen cross-cutting principles. We have reached a rare moment of near-consensus in the global digital ecosystem, one that offers undeniable potential for revamping (and improving) our frameworks for global governance.

The Global Digital Compact will be agreed upon by UN Member States at the Summit of the Future at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, establishing guidelines for the responsible use and governance of digital technologies. 

The growing prominence of these objectives and principles at the seat of global governance is a welcome development. Each is essential to developing a healthy, safe and responsible digital ecosystem. In particular, the emphasis on better data governance is a step forward, as is the related call for an enhanced approach for international AI governance. Both cannot be separated: data governance is the bedrock of AI governance.

Yet now that we are moving toward ratification of the Compact, we must focus on the next crucial—and in some ways most difficult – step: implementation. This is particularly important given that the digital realm faces in many ways a growing crisis of credibility, marked by growing concerns over exclusion, extraction, concentrations of power, mis- and disinformation, and what we have elsewhere referred to as an impending “data winter”.

Manifesting the goals of the Compact to create genuine and lasting impact is thus critical. In what follows, we explore four key ways in which the Compact’s key objectives can be operationalized to create a more vibrant, responsive and free global digital commons…(More)”.

The Complexities of Differential Privacy for Survey Data

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Jörg Drechsler & James Bailie: “The concept of differential privacy (DP) has gained substantial attention in recent years, most notably since the U.S. Census Bureau announced the adoption of the concept for its 2020 Decennial Census. However, despite its attractive theoretical properties, implementing DP in practice remains challenging, especially when it comes to survey data. In this paper we present some results from an ongoing project funded by the U.S. Census Bureau that is exploring the possibilities and limitations of DP for survey data. Specifically, we identify five aspects that need to be considered when adopting DP in the survey context: the multi-staged nature of data production; the limited privacy amplification from complex sampling designs; the implications of survey-weighted estimates; the weighting adjustments for nonresponse and other data deficiencies, and the imputation of missing values. We summarize the project’s key findings with respect to each of these aspects and also discuss some of the challenges that still need to be addressed before DP could become the new data protection standard at statistical agencies…(More)”.