An Algorithm Told Police She Was Safe. Then Her Husband Killed Her.

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Adam Satariano and Roser Toll Pifarré: “Spain has become dependent on an algorithm to combat gender violence, with the software so woven into law enforcement that it is hard to know where its recommendations end and human decision-making begins. At its best, the system has helped police protect vulnerable women and, overall, has reduced the number of repeat attacks in domestic violence cases. But the reliance on VioGén has also resulted in victims, whose risk levels are miscalculated, getting attacked again — sometimes leading to fatal consequences.

Spain now has 92,000 active cases of gender violence victims who were evaluated by VioGén, with most of them — 83 percent — classified as facing little risk of being hurt by their abuser again. Yet roughly 8 percent of women who the algorithm found to be at negligible risk and 14 percent at low risk have reported being harmed again, according to Spain’s Interior Ministry, which oversees the system.

At least 247 women have also been killed by their current or former partner since 2007 after being assessed by VioGén, according to government figures. While that is a tiny fraction of gender violence cases, it points to the algorithm’s flaws. The New York Times found that in a judicial review of 98 of those homicides, 55 of the slain women were scored by VioGén as negligible or low risk for repeat abuse…(More)”.

What does a ‘mission-driven’ approach to government mean and how can it be delivered?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Report by the Institute for Government and Nesta: “… set out a recommended approach for how government could effectively organise itself to deliver missions. It should act as a guide for public servants at the start of a new administration that has pledged to do things differently.

Missions are designed to set bold visions for change, inspiring collaboration across the system and society to break down silos and work towards a common goal. They represent the ultimate purpose of the Government, and the story it aims to tell by the end of the Parliament.

To succeed, government will need to adopt three key roles: driving public service innovation, shaping markets and harnessing collective intelligence to improve decision-making. Achieving these missions will require strong foundations and well-recognised enablers of good government, pursued in a specific manner to bring about a cultural change in Whitehall…(More)”.

AI: a transformative force in maternal healthcare

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Afifa Waheed: “Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics have enormous potential in healthcare and are quickly shifting the landscape – emerging as a transformative force. They offer a new dimension to the way healthcare professionals approach disease diagnosis, treatment and monitoring. AI is being used in healthcare to help diagnose patients, for drug discovery and development, to improve physician-patient communication, to transcribe voluminous medical documents, and to analyse genomics and genetics. Labs are conducting research work faster than ever before, work that otherwise would have taken decades without the assistance of AI. AI-driven research in life sciences has included applications looking to address broad-based areas, such as diabetes, cancer, chronic kidney disease and maternal health.

In addition to increasing the knowledge of access to postnatal and neonatal care, AI can predict the risk of adverse events in antenatal and postnatal women and their neonatal care. It can be trained to identify those at risk of adverse events, by using patients’ health information such as nutrition status, age, existing health conditions and lifestyle factors. 

AI can further be used to improve access to women located in rural areas with a lack of trained professionals – AI-enabled ultrasound can assist front-line workers with image interpretation for a comprehensive set of obstetrics measurements, increasing quality access to early foetal ultrasound scans. The use of AI assistants and chatbots can also improve pregnant mothers’ experience by helping them find available physicians, schedule appointments and even answer some patient questions…

Many healthcare professionals I have spoken to emphasised that pre-existing conditions such as high blood pressure that leads to preeclampsia, iron deficiency, cardiovascular disease, age-related issues for those over 35, various other existing health conditions, and failure in the progress of labour that might lead to Caesarean (C-section), could all cause maternal deaths. Training AI models to detect these diseases early on and accurately for women could prove to be beneficial. AI algorithms can leverage advanced algorithms, machine learning (ML) techniques, and predictive models to enhance decision-making, optimise healthcare delivery, and ultimately improve patient outcomes in foeto-maternal health…(More)”.

The Economic Case for Reimagining the State

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Report by the Tony Blair Institute: “The new government will need to lean in to support the diffusion of AI-era tech across the economy by adopting a pro-innovation, pro-technology stance, as advocated by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in our paper Accelerating the Future: Industrial Strategy in the Era of AI.

AI-era tech can also transform public services, creating a smaller, lower-cost state that delivers better outcomes for citizens. New TBI analysis suggests:

  • Adoption of AI across the public-sector workforce could save around one-fifth of workforce time at a comparatively low cost. If the government chooses to bank these time savings and reduce the size of the workforce, this could result in annual net savings of £10 billion per year by the end of this Parliament and £34 billion per year by the end of the next – enough to pay for the entire defence budget.
  • AI-era tech also offers significant potential to improve the UK’s health services. We envisage a major expansion of the country’s preventative-health-care system, including: a digital health record for every citizen; improved access to health checks online, at home and on the high street; and a wider rollout of preventative treatments across the population. This programme could lead to the triple benefit of a healthier population, a healthier economy (with more people in work) and healthier public finances (since more workers mean more tax revenues). Even a narrow version of this programme – focused only on cardiovascular disease – could lead to 70,000 more people in work and generate net savings to the Exchequer worth £600 million by the end of this parliamentary term, and £1.2 billion by the end of the next. Much larger gains are possible – worth £6 billion per year by 2040 – if medical treatments continue to advance and the programme expands to cover a wider range of conditions, including obesity and cancer.
  • Introducing a digital ID could significantly improve the way that citizens interact with government, in terms of saving them time, easing access and creating a more personalised service. A digital ID could also generate a net gain of about £2 billion per year for the Exchequer by helping to reduce benefit fraud, improve the efficiency of tax-revenue collection and better target welfare payments in a crisis. Based on international experience, we think it is achievable for the government to implement a digital ID within three years and generate cumulative net savings of almost £4 billion during this Parliament, and nearly £10 billion during the next term.
  • AI could also lead to a 6 per cent boost in educational attainment by helping to improve the quality of teaching, save teacher time and improve the ability of students to absorb lesson content. These gains would take time to materialise but could eventually raise UK GDP by up to 6 per cent in the long run and create more than £30 billion in fiscal space per year.

The four public-sector use cases outlined above could create substantial fiscal savings for the new government worth £12 billion a year (0.4 per cent of GDP) by the end of this parliamentary term, £37 billion (1.3 per cent of GDP) by the end of the next, and more than £40 billion (1.5 per cent of GDP) by 2040…(More)”.

Citizen engagement

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

European Union Report: “…considers how to approach citizen engagement for the EU missions. Engagement and social dialogue should aim to ensure that innovation is human-centred and that missions maintain wide public legitimacy. But citizen engagement is complex and significantly changes the traditional responsibilities of the research and innovation community and calls for new capabilities. This report provides insights to build these capabilities and explores effective ways to help citizens understand their role within the EU missions, showing how to engage them throughout the various stages of implementation. The report considers both the challenges and administrative burdens of citizen engagement and sets out how to overcome them, as well as demonstrated the wider opportunity of “double additionality” where citizen engagement methods serve to fundamentally transform an entire research and innovation portfolio…(More)”.

Exploring Digital Biomarkers for Depression Using Mobile Technology

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Yuezhou Zhang et al: “With the advent of ubiquitous sensors and mobile technologies, wearables and smartphones offer a cost-effective means for monitoring mental health conditions, particularly depression. These devices enable the continuous collection of behavioral data, providing novel insights into the daily manifestations of depressive symptoms.

We found several significant links between depression severity and various behavioral biomarkers: elevated depression levels were associated with diminished sleep quality (assessed through Fitbit metrics), reduced sociability (approximated by Bluetooth), decreased levels of physical activity (quantified by step counts and GPS data), a slower cadence of daily walking (captured by smartphone accelerometers), and disturbances in circadian rhythms (analyzed across various data streams).
Leveraging digital biomarkers for assessing and continuously monitoring depression introduces a new paradigm in early detection and development of customized intervention strategies. Findings from these studies not only enhance our comprehension of depression in real-world settings but also underscore the potential of mobile technologies in the prevention and management of mental health issues…(More)”

Designing an Effective Governance Model for Data Collaboratives

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Federico Bartolomucci & Francesco Leoni: “Data Collaboratives have gained traction as interorganizational partnerships centered on data exchange. They enhance the collective capacity of responding to contemporary societal challenges using data, while also providing participating organizations with innovation capabilities and reputational benefits. Unfortunately, data collaboratives often fail to advance beyond the pilot stage and are therefore limited in their capacity to deliver systemic change. The governance setting adopted by a data collaborative affects how it acts over the short and long term. We present a governance design model to develop context-dependent data collaboratives. Practitioners can use the proposed model and list of key reflective questions to evaluate the critical aspects of designing a governance model for their data collaboratives…(More)”.

Unlocking the Potential of Data: Innovative Policies for Responsible Data Reuse and Addressing Data Asymmetries

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Testimony by Stefaan Verhulst to the German Bundestag: “Let me begin by highlighting the potential of data when used and reused responsibly. Although we hear much about the risks of using data–and many of the fears are indeed justified–it’s also important to keep in mind the very real possibilities that data offers for advancing the public good.

We live in a datafied world, characterized by an unprecedented supply–even glut–of data. In this world, data has become a critical resource for informing policy and decision-making processes.  When properly analyzed and utilized, data can play a critical role in helping policymakers–and other stakeholders–address a range of critical problems, in sectors as diverse as public health, climate, innovation and economic development, combating urban decay–and much more.

Sometimes this data is readily available. Most of the time it is not. One of the areas with the biggest potential–yet also significant challenges–is data reuse – data already collected for one purpose using it for another.  Data reuse can provide invaluable insights into current phenomena, help us understand the causes of emerging trends, and guide us in developing effective solutions to pressing challenges. Moreover, analysis from data re-use can serve as a powerful tool for anticipating future developments and prescribing targeted interventions…

Despite the very potential of data and data reuse, it’s undeniable we face significant challenges in realizing data’s full societal value.

One of the primary obstacles is a lack of access to high-quality, timely data by the public sector,  civil society, and other groups that are working toward the public good. 

We live in a paradoxical situation today, marked both by the availability of an unprecedented amount of data, but also by unprecedented asymmetries in access to that data for reuse in the public interest. 

I believe that the growing asymmetries between those who have data (often from the private sector) and those who are best positioned to use it for the public good, represents one of the major challenges of our era. 

Data policy to date has primarily focused on preventing the misuse of data, often for valid reasons as mentioned earlier. However, this approach has inadvertently overlooked the missed uses of data – the opportunities we fail to capitalize on due to overly restrictive policies or lack of innovative frameworks for data sharing and utilization…

Given these challenges, what can policymakers do? What steps can policymakers such as yourselves – and other stakeholders, from the private sector, academia and civil society – take to help maximize the potential of our datafied society and economy, and to ensure that the benefits of our data age are maximized in as equitable and inclusive a manner as possible?..(More)” (German) (See also: Experten: Innovative Ansätze in der Datenpolitik nötig).

Using AI to Inform Policymaking

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper for the AI4Democracy series at The Center for the Governance of Change at IE University: “Good policymaking requires a multifaceted approach, incorporating diverse tools and processes to address the varied needs and expectations of constituents. The paper by Turan and McKenzie focuses on an LLM-based tool, “Talk to the City” (TttC), developed to facilitate collective decision-making by soliciting, analyzing, and organizing public opinion. This tool has been tested in three distinct applications:

1. Finding Shared Principles within Constituencies: Through large-scale citizen consultations, TttC helps identify common values and priorities.

2. Compiling Shared Experiences in Community Organizing: The tool aggregates and synthesizes the experiences of community members, providing a cohesive overview.

3. Action-Oriented Decision Making in Decentralized Governance: TttC supports decision-making processes in decentralized governance structures by providing actionable insights from diverse inputs.

CAPABILITIES AND BENEFITS OF LLM TOOLS

LLMs, when applied to democratic decision-making, offer significant advantages:

  • Processing Large Volumes of Qualitative Inputs: LLMs can handle extensive qualitative data, summarizing discussions and identifying overarching themes with high accuracy.
  • Producing Aggregate Descriptions in Natural Language: The ability to generate clear, comprehensible summaries from complex data makes these tools invaluable for communicating nuanced topics.
  • Facilitating Understanding of Constituents’ Needs: By organizing public input, LLM tools help leaders gain a better understanding of their constituents’ needs and priorities.

CASE STUDIES AND TOOL EFFICACY

The paper presents case studies using TttC, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving collective deliberation and decision-making. Key functionalities include:

  • Aggregating Responses and Clustering Ideas: TttC identifies common themes and divergences within a population’s opinions.
  • Interactive Interface for Exploration: The tool provides an interactive platform for exploring the diversity of opinions at both individual and group scales, revealing complexity, common ground, and polarization…(More)”