The war over the peace business

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Tekendra Parmar: “At the second annual AI+ Expo in Washington, DC, in early June, war is the word of the day.

As a mix of Beltway bureaucrats, military personnel, and Washington’s consultant class peruse the expansive Walter E. Washington Convention Center, a Palantir booth showcases its latest in data-collection suites for “warfighters.” Lockheed Martin touts the many ways it is implementing AI throughout its weaponry systems. On the soundstage, the defense tech darling Mach Industries is selling its newest uncrewed aerial vehicles. “We’re living in a world with great-power competition,” the presenter says. “We can’t rule out the possibility of war — but the best way to prevent a war is deterrence,” he says, flanked by videos of drones flying through what looked like the rugged mountains and valleys of Kandahar.

Hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project, a think tank led by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, the expo says it seeks to bridge the gap between Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and Washington policymakers to “strengthen” America and its allies’ “competitiveness in critical technologies.”

One floor below, a startup called Anadyr Horizon is making a very different sales pitch, for software that seeks to prevent war rather than fight it: “Peace tech,” as the company’s cofounder Arvid Bell calls it. Dressed in white khakis and a black pinstripe suit jacket with a dove and olive branch pinned to his lapel (a gift from his husband), the former Harvard political scientist begins by noting that Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine had come as a surprise to many political scientists. But his AI software, he says, could predict it.

Long the domain of fantasy and science fiction, the idea of forecasting conflict has now become a serious pursuit. In Isaac Asimov’s 1950s “Foundation” series, the main character develops an algorithm that allows him to predict the decline of the Galactic Empire, angering its rulers and forcing him into exile. During the coronavirus pandemic, the US State Department experimented with AI fed with Twitter data to predict “COVID cases” and “violent events.” In its AI audit two years ago, the State Department revealed that it started training AI on “open-source political, social, and economic datasets” to predict “mass civilian killings.” The UN is also said to have experimented with AI to model the war in Gaza…(More)”… ..See also Kluz Prize for PeaceTech (Applications Open)

AI is supercharging war. Could it also help broker peace?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Tina Amirtha: “Can we measure what is in our hearts and minds, and could it help us end wars any sooner? These are the questions that consume entrepreneur Shawn Guttman, a Canadian émigré who recently gave up his yearslong teaching position in Israel to accelerate a path to peace—using an algorithm.

Living some 75 miles north of Tel Aviv, Guttman is no stranger to the uncertainties of conflict. Over the past few months, miscalculated drone strikes and imprecise missile targets—some intended for larger cities—have occasionally landed dangerously close to his town, sending him to bomb shelters more than once.

“When something big happens, we can point to it and say, ‘Right, that happened because five years ago we did A, B, and C, and look at its effect,’” he says over Google Meet from his office, following a recent trip to the shelter. Behind him, souvenirs from the 1979 Egypt-Israel and 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaties are visible. “I’m tired of that perspective.”

The startup he cofounded, Didi, is taking a different approach. Its aim is to analyze data across news outlets, political discourse, and social media to identify opportune moments to broker peace. Inspired by political scientist I. William Zartman’s “ripeness” theory, the algorithm—called the Ripeness Index—is designed to tell negotiators, organizers, diplomats, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) exactly when conditions are “ripe” to initiate peace negotiations, build coalitions, or launch grassroots campaigns.

During ongoing U.S.-led negotiations over the war in Gaza, both Israel and Hamas have entrenched themselves in opposing bargaining positions. Meanwhile, Israel’s traditional allies, including the U.S., have expressed growing frustration over the war and the dire humanitarian conditions in the enclave, where the threat of famine looms.

In Israel, Didi’s data is already informing grassroots organizations as they strategize which media outlets to target and how to time public actions, such as protests, in coordination with coalition partners. Guttman and his collaborators hope that eventually negotiators will use the model’s insights to help broker lasting peace.

Guttman’s project is part of a rising wave of so-called PeaceTech—a movement using technology to make negotiations more inclusive and data-driven. This includes AI from Hala Systems, which uses satellite imagery and data fusion to monitor ceasefires in Yemen and Ukraine. Another AI startup, Remesh, has been active across the Middle East, helping organizations of all sizes canvas key stakeholders. Its algorithm clusters similar opinions, giving policymakers and mediators a clearer view of public sentiment and division.

A range of NGOs and academic researchers have also developed digital tools for peacebuilding. The nonprofit Computational Democracy Project created Pol.is, an open-source platform that enables citizens to crowdsource outcomes to public debates. Meanwhile, the Futures Lab at the Center for Strategic and International Studies built a peace agreement simulator, complete with a chart to track how well each stakeholder’s needs are met.

Guttman knows it’s an uphill battle. In addition to the ethical and privacy concerns of using AI to interpret public sentiment, PeaceTech also faces financial hurdles. These companies must find ways to sustain themselves amid shrinking public funding and a transatlantic surge in defense spending, which has pulled resources away from peacebuilding initiatives.

Still, Guttman and his investors remain undeterred. One way to view the opportunity for PeaceTech is by looking at the economic toll of war. In its Global Peace Index 2024, the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Vision of Humanity platform estimated that economic disruption due to violence and the fear of violence cost the world $19.1 trillion in 2023, or about 13 percent of global GDP. Guttman sees plenty of commercial potential in times of peace as well.

“Can we make billions of dollars,” Guttman asks, “and save the world—and create peace?” ..(More)”….See also Kluz Prize for PeaceTech (Applications Open)

The Reenchanted World: On finding mystery in the digital age

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Essay by Karl Ove Knausgaard: “…When Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels wrote about alienation in the 1840s—that’s nearly two hundred years ago—they were describing workers’ relationship with their work, but the consequences of alienation spread into their analysis to include our relationship to nature and to existence as such. One term they used was “loss of reality.” Society at that time was incomparably more brutal, the machines incomparably coarser, but problems such as economic inequality and environmental destruction have continued into our own time. If anything, alienation as Marx and Engels defined it has only increased.

Or has it? The statement “people are more alienated now than ever before in history” sounds false, like applying an old concept to a new condition. That is not really what we are, is it? If there is something that characterizes our time, isn’t it the exact opposite, that nothing feels alien?

Alienation involves a distance from the world, a lack of connection between it and us. What technology does is compensate for the loss of reality with a substitute. Technology calibrates all differences, fills in every gap and crack with images and voices, bringing everything close to us in order to restore the connection between ourselves and the world. Even the past, which just a few generations ago was lost forever, can be retrieved and brought back…(More)”.

Fixing the US statistical infrastructure

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Nancy Potok and Erica L. Groshen: “Official government statistics are critical infrastructure for the information age. Reliable, relevant, statistical information helps businesses to invest and flourish; governments at the local, state, and national levels to make critical decisions on policy and public services; and individuals and families to invest in their futures. Yet surrounded by all manner of digitized data, one can still feel inadequately informed. A major driver of this disconnect in the US context is delayed modernization of the federal statistical system. The disconnect will likely worsen in coming months as the administration shrinks statistical agencies’ staffing, terminates programs (notably for health and education statistics), and eliminates unpaid external advisory groups. Amid this upheaval, might the administration’s appetite for disruption be harnessed to modernize federal statistics?

Federal statistics, one of the United States’ premier public goods, differ from privately provided data because they are privacy protected, aggregated to address relevant questions for decision-makers, constructed transparently, and widely available without a subscription. The private sector cannot be expected to adequately supply such statistical infrastructure. Yes, some companies collect and aggregate some economic data, such as credit card purchases and payroll information. But without strong underpinnings of a modern, federal information infrastructure, there would be large gaps in nationally consistent, transparent, trustworthy data. Furthermore, most private providers rely on public statistics for their internal analytics, to improve their products. They are among the many data users asking for more from statistical agencies…(More)”.

Sentinel Cities for Public Health

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Jesse Rothman, Paromita Hore & Andrew McCartor: “In 2017, a New York City health inspector visited the home of a 5-year-old child with an elevated blood lead level. With no sign of lead paint—the usual suspect in such cases—the inspector discovered dangerous levels of lead in a bright yellow container of “Georgian Saffron,” a spice obtained in the family’s home country. It was not the first case associated with the use of lead-containing Georgian spices—the NYC Health Department shared their findings with authorities in Georgia, which catalyzed a survey of children’s blood lead levels in Georgia, and led to increased regulatory enforcement and education. Significant declines in spice lead levels in the country have had ripple effects in NYC also: not only a drop in spice samples from Georgia containing detectable lead but also a significant reduction in blood lead levels among NYC children of Georgian ancestry.

This wasn’t a lucky break—it was the result of a systematic approach to transform local detection into global impact. Findings from local NYC surveillance are, of course, not limited to Georgian spices. Surveillance activities have identified a variety of lead-containing consumer products from around the world, from cosmetics and medicines to ceramics and other goods. Routinely surveying local stores for lead-containing products has resulted in the removal of over 30,000 hazardous consumer products from NYC store shelves since 2010.

How can we replicate and scale up NYC’s model to address the global crisis of lead poisoning?…(More)”.

AI alone cannot solve the productivity puzzle

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Carl Benedikt Frey: “Each time fears of AI-driven job losses flare up, optimists reassure us that artificial intelligence is a productivity tool that will help both workers and the economy. Microsoft chief Satya Nadella thinks autonomous AI agents will allow users to name their goal while the software plans, executes and learns across every system. A dream tool — if efficiency alone was enough to solve the productivity problem.

History says it is not. Over the past half-century we have filled offices and pockets with ever-faster computers, yet labour-productivity growth in advanced economies has slowed from roughly 2 per cent a year in the 1990s to about 0.8 per cent in the past decade. Even China’s once-soaring output per worker has stalled.

The shotgun marriage of the computer and the internet promised more than enhanced office efficiency — it envisioned a golden age of discovery. By placing the world’s knowledge in front of everyone and linking global talent, breakthroughs should have multiplied. Yet research productivity has sagged. The average scientist now produces fewer breakthrough ideas per dollar than their 1960s counterpart.

What went wrong? As economist Gary Becker once noted, parents face a quality-versus-quantity trade-off: the more children they have, the less they can invest in each child. The same might be said for innovation.

Large-scale studies of inventive output confirm the result: researchers juggling more projects are less likely to deliver breakthrough innovations. Over recent decades, scientific papers and patents have become increasingly incremental. History’s greats understood why. Isaac Newton kept a single problem “constantly before me . . . till the first dawnings open slowly, by little and little, into a full and clear light”. Steve Jobs concurred: “Innovation is saying no to a thousand things.”

Human ingenuity thrives where precedent is thin. Had the 19th century focused solely on better looms and ploughs, we would enjoy cheap cloth and abundant grain — but there would be no antibiotics, jet engines or rockets. Economic miracles stem from discovery, not repeating tasks at greater speed.

Large language models gravitate towards the statistical consensus. A model trained before Galileo would have parroted a geocentric universe; fed 19th-century texts it would have proved human flight impossible before the Wright brothers succeeded. A recent Nature review found that while LLMs lightened routine scientific chores, the decisive leaps of insight still belonged to humans. Even Demis Hassabis, whose team at Google DeepMind produced AlphaFold — a model that can predict the shape of a protein and is arguably AI’s most celebrated scientific feat so far — admits that achieving genuine artificial general intelligence systems that can match or surpass humans across the full spectrum of cognitive tasks may require “several more innovations”…(More)”.

5 Ways AI is Boosting Citizen Engagement in Africa’s Democracies

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Peter Agbesi Adivor: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly influencing democratic participation across Africa. From campaigning to voter education, AI is transforming electoral processes across the continent. While concerns about misinformation and government overreach persist, AI also offers promising avenues to enhance citizen engagement. This article explores five key ways AI is fostering more inclusive and participatory democracies in Africa.

1. AI-Powered Voter Education and Campaign

AI-driven platforms are revolutionizing voter education by providing accessible, real-time information. These platforms ensure citizens receive standardized electoral information delivered to them on their digital devices regardless of their geographical location, significantly reducing the cost for political actors as well as state and non-state actors who focus on voter education. They also ensure that those who can navigate these tools easily access the needed information, allowing authorities to focus limited resources on citizens on the other side of the digital divide.

 In Nigeria, ChatVE developed CitiBot, an AI-powered chatbot deployed during the 2024 Edo State elections to educate citizens on their civic rights and responsibilities via WhatsApp and Telegram. The bot offered information on voting procedures, eligibility, and the importance of participation.

Similarly, in South Africa, the Rivonia Circle introduced Thoko the Bot, an AI chatbot designed to answer voters’ questions about the electoral process, including where and how to vote, and the significance of participating in elections.

These AI tools enhance voter understanding and engagement by providing personalized, easily accessible information, thereby encouraging greater participation in democratic processes…(More)”.

5 Ways AI Supports City Adaptation to Extreme Heat

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Urban AI: “Cities stand at the frontline of climate change, confronting some of its most immediate and intense consequences. Among these, extreme heat has emerged as one of the most pressing and rapidly escalating threats. As we enter June 2025, Europe is already experiencing its first major and long-lasting heatwave of the summer season with temperatures surpassing 40°C in parts of Spain, France, and Portugal — and projections indicate that this extreme event could persist well into mid-June.

This climate event is not an isolated incident. By 2050, the number of cities exposed to dangerous levels of heat is expected to triple, with peak temperatures of 48°C (118°F) potentially becoming the new normal in some regions. Such intensifying conditions place unprecedented stress on urban infrastructure, public health systems, and the overall livability of cities — especially for vulnerable communities.

In this context, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a vital tool in the urban climate adaptation toolbox. Urban AI — defined as the application of AI technologies to urban systems and decision-making — can help cities anticipate, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme heat in more targeted and effective ways.

Cooling the Metro with AI-Driven Ventilation, in Barcelona

With over 130 stations and a century-old metro network, the city of Barcelona faces increasing pressure to ensure passenger comfort and safety — especially underground, where heat and air quality are harder to manage. In response, Transports Metropolitans de Barcelona (TMB), in partnership with SENER Engineering, developed and implemented the RESPIRA® system, an AI-powered ventilation control platform. First introduced in 2020 on Line 1, RESPIRA® demonstrated its effectiveness by lowering ambient temperatures, improving air circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and achieving a notable 25.1% reduction in energy consumption along with a 10.7% increase in passenger satisfaction…(More)”

Beyond the Checkbox: Upgrading the Right to Opt Out

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Sebastian Zimmeck: “…rights, as currently encoded in privacy laws, put too much onus on individuals when many privacy problems are systematic.5 Indeed, privacy is a systems property. If we want to make progress toward a more privacy-friendly Web as well as mobile and smart TV platforms, we need to take a systems perspective. For example, instead of requiring people to opt out from individual websites, there should be opt-out settings in browsers and operating systems. If a law requires individual opt-outs, those can be generalized by applying one opt-out toward all future sites visited or apps used, if a user so desires.8

Another problem is that the ad ecosystem is structured such that if people opt out, in many cases, their data is still being shared just as if they would not have opted out. The only difference is that in the latter case the data is accompanied by a privacy flag propagating the opt-out to the data recipient.7 However, if people opt out, their data should not be shared in the first place! The current system relying on the propagation of opt-out signals and deletion of incoming data by the recipient is complicated, error-prone, violates the principle of data minimization, and is an obstacle for effective privacy enforcement. Changing the ad ecosystem is particularly important as it is not only used on the web but also on many other platforms. Companies and the online ad industry as a whole need to do better!..(More)”

Can AI Agents Be Trusted?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Blair Levin and Larry Downes: “Agentic AI has quickly become one of the most active areas of artificial intelligence development. AI agents are a level of programming on top of large language models (LLMs) that allow them to work towards specific goals. This extra layer of software can collect data, make decisions, take action, and adapt its behavior based on results. Agents can interact with other systems, apply reasoning, and work according to priorities and rules set by you as the principal.

Companies such as Salesforce have already deployed agents that can independently handle customer queries in a wide range of industries and applications, for example, and recognize when human intervention is required.

But perhaps the most exciting future for agentic AI will come in the form of personal agents, which can take self-directed action on your behalf. These agents will act as your personal assistant, handling calendar management, performing directed research and analysis, finding, negotiating for, and purchasing goods and services, curating content and taking over basic communications, learning and optimizing themselves along the way.

The idea of personal AI agents goes back decades, but the technology finally appears ready for prime-time. Already, leading companies are offering prototype personal AI agents to their customers, suppliers, and other stakeholders, raising challenging business and technical questions. Most pointedly: Can AI agents be trusted to act in our best interests? Will they work exclusively for us, or will their loyalty be split between users, developers, advertisers, and service providers? And how will be know?

The answers to these questions will determine whether and how quickly users embrace personal AI agents, and if their widespread deployment will enhance or damage business relationships and brand value…(More)”.