Using “Big Data” to forecast migration

Blog Post by Jasper Tjaden, Andres Arau, Muertizha Nuermaimaiti, Imge Cetin, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Marzia Rango: Act 1 — High Expectations

“Data is the new oil,” they say. ‘Big Data’ is even bigger than that. The “data revolution” will contribute to solving societies’ problems and help governments adopt better policies and run more effective programs. In the migration field, digital trace data are seen as a potentially powerful tool to improve migration management processes (visa applications; asylum decision and geographic allocation of asylum seeker, facilitating integration, “smart borders” etc.).1

Forecasting migration is one particular area where big data seems to excite data nerds (like us) and policymakers alike. If there is one way big data has already made a difference, it is its ability to bring different actors together — data scientists, business people and policy makers — to sit through countless slides with numbers, tables and graphs. Traditional migration data sources, like censuses, administrative data and surveys, have never quite managed to generate the same level of excitement.

Many EU countries are currently heavily investing in new ways to forecast migration. Relatively large numbers of asylum seekers in 2014, 2015 and 2016 strained the capacity of many EU governments. Better forecasting tools are meant to help governments prepare in advance.

In a recent European Migration Network study, 10 out of the 22 EU governments surveyed said they make use of forecasting methods, many using open source data for “early warning and risk analysis” purposes. The 2020 European Migration Network conference was dedicated entirely to the theme of forecasting migration, hosting more than 15 expert presentations on the topic. The recently proposed EU Pact on Migration and Asylum outlines a “Migration Preparedness and Crisis Blueprint” which “should provide timely and adequate information in order to establish the updated migration situational awareness and provide for early warning/forecasting, as well as increase resilience to efficiently deal with any type of migration crisis.” (p. 4) The European Commission is currently finalizing a feasibility study on the use of artificial intelligence for predicting migration to the EU; Frontex — the EU Border Agency — is scaling up efforts to forecast irregular border crossings; EASO — the European Asylum Support Office — is devising a composite “push-factor index” and experimenting with forecasting asylum-related migration flows using machine learning and data at scale. In Fall 2020, during Germany’s EU Council Presidency, the German Interior Ministry organized a workshop series around Migration 4.0 highlighting the benefits of various ways to “digitalize” migration management. At the same time, the EU is investing substantial resources in migration forecasting research under its Horizon2020 programme, including QuantMig, ITFLOWS, and HumMingBird.