Essay by Dominic Burbidge: “…The starting point for AI ethics must be the recognition that AI is a simple and limited instrument. Until we master this point, we cannot hope to work back toward a type of ethics that best fits the industry.
Unfortunately, we are constantly being bombarded with the exact opposite: an image of AI as neither simple nor limited. We are told instead that AI is an all-purpose tool that is now taking over everything. There are two prominent versions of this image and both are misguided.
The first is the appeal of the technology’s exponential improvement. Moore’s Law is a good example of this kind of widespread sentiment, a law that more or less successfully predicted that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit would double approximately every two years. That looks like a lot, but remember: all you have in front of you is more transistors. The curve of exponential change looks impressive on a graph, but really the most important change was when we had no transistors and then William Shockley, John Bardeen, and Walter Brattain invented one. The multiple of change from zero to one is infinite, so any subsequent “exponential” rate of change is a climb-down from that original invention.
When technology becomes faster, smaller, or lighter, it gives us the impression of ever-faster change, but all we are really doing is failing to come up with new inventions, such that we have to rely on reworking and remarketing our existing products. That is not exactly progress of the innovative kind, and it by no means suggests that a given technology is unlimited in future potential.
The second argument we often hear is that AI is taking on more and more tasks, which is why it is unlimited in a way that is different from other, more single-use technologies of the past. We are also told that AI is likely to adopt ever more cognitively demanding activities, which seems to be further proof of its open-ended possibilities.
This is sort of true but actually a rather banal point, in the sense that technologies typically take on more and more uses than the original designers could have expected. But that is not evidence that the technology itself has changed. The commercially available microwave oven, for example, came about when American electrical engineer Percy Spencer developed it from British radar technology used in the Second World War, allegedly discovering the heating effect when the candy in his pocket melted in front of a radar set. So technology shifts and reapplies itself, and in this way naturally takes on all kinds of unexpected uses. But new uses of something does not mean its possible uses will be infinite…(More)”.
