Paper by Kim M. Pepin: “Every decision a person makes is based on a model. A model is an idea about how a process works based on previous experience, observation, or other data. Models may not be explicit or stated (Johnson-Laird, 2010), but they serve to simplify a complex world. Models vary dramatically from conceptual (idea) to statistical (mathematical expression relating observed data to an assumed process and/or other data) or analytical/computational (quantitative algorithm describing a process). Predictive models of complex systems describe an understanding of how systems work, often in mathematical or statistical terms, using data, knowledge, and/or expert opinion. They provide means for predicting outcomes of interest, studying different management decision impacts, and quantifying decision risk and uncertainty (Berger et al. 2021; Li et al. 2017). They can help decision-makers assimilate how multiple pieces of information determine an outcome of interest about a complex system (Berger et al. 2021; Hemming et al. 2022).
People rely daily on system-level models to reach objectives. Choosing the fastest route to a destination is one example. Such a decision may be based on either a mental model of the road system developed from previous experience or a traffic prediction mapping application based on mathematical algorithms and current data. Either way, a system-level model has been applied and there is some uncertainty. In contrast, predicting outcomes for new and complex phenomena, such as emerging disease spread, a biological invasion risk (Chen et al. 2023; Elderd et al. 2006; Pepin et al. 2022), or climatic impacts on ecosystems is more uncertain. Here public service decision-makers may turn to mathematical models when expert opinion and experience do not resolve enough uncertainty about decision outcomes. But using models to guide decisions also relies on expert opinion and experience. Also, even technical experts need to make modeling choices regarding model structure and data inputs that have uncertainty (Elderd et al. 2006) and these might not be completely objective decisions (Bedson et al. 2021). Thus, using models for guiding decisions has subjectivity from both the developer and end-user, which can lead to apprehension or lack of trust about using models to inform decisions.
Models may be particularly advantageous to decision-making in One Health sectors, including health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment (hereafter called One Health sectors) and their interconnectedness (Adisasmito et al. 2022)…(More)”.