Article by Christopher Beam: “…Mention markets are the high-octane, fast-twitch speed competitions of the prediction market world. But they’re just one corner of it. Users of Kalshi and its primary rival, Polymarket, can bet on events major and minor, from politics to sports to culture to the weather. Recent markets on Kalshi have included whether certain words would be used during a Palantir Technologies Inc. earnings call, whether Elon Musk would win his court case against OpenAI and whether the highest temperature in Seattle on Feb. 4 would be within a certain range. Polymarket users have bet on whether the US would strike Iran on a particular date, whether a given Trump cabinet member would be the first to leave office and whether Jesus Christ would return before 2027.
Prediction markets were once a fringe obsession of economists and election wonks, but in the past year or so, they’ve gone from obscure to everywhere. The industry is booming thanks to a combination of marketing, distrust in traditional sources of information and a newly friendly regulatory environment. Late last year, Kalshi Inc. and Polymarket, both headquartered in New York City, raised funds at valuations of $11 billion and $8 billion, respectively. In the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, Kalshi users were betting more than $2 billion a week, while Polymarket users were just shy of that, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics…(More)”.
