Article by Zoya Teirstein: “Earth just experienced one of its hottest, and most damaging, periods on record. Heat waves in the United States, Europe, and China; catastrophic flooding in India, Brazil, Hong Kong, and Libya; and outbreaks of malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne illnesses across southern Asia claimed tens of thousands of lives. The vast majority of these deaths could have been averted with the right safeguards in place. The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, published a report last week that shows just 11 percent of countries have the full arsenal of tools required to save lives as the... (More >)
AI Globalism and AI Localism: Governing AI at the Local Level for Global Benefit
Article by Stefaan G. Verhulst: “With the UK Summit in full swing, 2023 will likely be seen as a pivotal year for AI governance, with governments promoting a global governance model: AI Globalism. For it to be relevant, flexible, and effective, any global approach will need to be informed by and complemented with local experimentation and leadership, ensuring local responsiveness: AI Localism. Even as consumers and businesses extend their use of AI (generative AI in particular), governments are also taking notice. Determined not to be caught on the back foot, as they were with social media, regulators and policymakers... (More >)
Shifting policy systems – a framework for what to do and how to do it
Blog by UK Policy Lab: “Systems change is hard work, and it takes time. The reality is that no single system map or tool is enough to get you from point A to point B, from system now to system next. Over the last year, we have explored the latest in systems change theory and applied it to policymaking. In this four part blog series, we share our reflections on the wealth of knowledge we’ve gained working on intractable issues surrounding how support is delivered for people experiencing multiple disadvantage. Along the way, we realised that we need to... (More >)
Towards a Taxonomy of Anticipatory Methods: Integrating Traditional and Innovative Methods for Migration Policy
Blog by Sara Marcucci, and Stefaan Verhulst: “…In this week’s blog post, we delineate a taxonomy of anticipatory methods, categorizing them into three distinct sub-categories: Experience-based, Exploration-based, and Expertise-based methods. Our focus will be on what the practical applications of these methods are and how both traditional and non-traditional data sources play a pivotal role within each of these categories. …Experience-based methods in the realm of migration policy focus on gaining insights from the lived experiences of individuals and communities involved in migration processes. These methods allow policymakers to tap into the lived experiences, challenges, and aspirations of individuals... (More >)
How language gaps constrain generative AI development
Article by Regina Ta and Nicol Turner Lee: “Prompt-based generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools are quickly being deployed for a range of use cases, from writing emails and compiling legal cases to personalizing research essays in a wide range of educational, professional, and vocational disciplines. But language is not monolithic, and opportunities may be missed in developing generative AI tools for non-standard languages and dialects. Current applications often are not optimized for certain populations or communities and, in some instances, may exacerbate social and economic divisions. As noted by the Austrian linguist and philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein, “The limits of... (More >)
Predictive Policing Software Terrible At Predicting Crimes
Article by Aaron Sankin and Surya Mattu: “A software company sold a New Jersey police department an algorithm that was right less than 1% of the time Crime predictions generated for the police department in Plainfield, New Jersey, rarely lined up with reported crimes, an analysis by The Markup has found, adding new context to the debate over the efficacy of crime prediction software. Geolitica, known as PredPol until a 2021 rebrand, produces software that ingests data from crime incident reports and produces daily predictions on where and when crimes are most likely to occur. We examined 23,631 predictions... (More >)
Anticipating the Future: Shifting Paradigms
Blog by Sara Marcucci and Stefaan Verhulst: “…Migration is a dynamic phenomenon influenced by a variety of factors. As migration policies strive to keep pace with an ever-changing landscape, anticipating trends becomes increasingly pertinent. Traditionally, in the realm of anticipatory methods, a clear demarcation existed between foresight and forecast. Forecast predominantly relies on quantitative techniques to predict future trends, utilizing historical data, mathematical models, and statistical analyses to provide numerical predictions applicable to the short-to-medium term, seeking to facilitate expedited policy making, resource allocation, and logistical planning. Foresight methodologies conventionally leaned on qualitative insights to explore future possibilities, employing... (More >)
Lessons from the Past to Govern for the Future
Article by Claudette Salinas Leyva et al: “Many of our institutions are focused on the short term. Whether corporations, government bodies, or even nonprofits, they tend to prioritize immediate returns and discount long-term value and sustainability. This myopia is behind planetary crises such as climate change and biodiversity loss and contributes to decision-making that harms the wellbeing of communities. Policymakers worldwide are beginning to recognize the importance of governing for the long term. The United Nations is currently developing a Declaration on Future Generations to codify this approach. This collection of case studies profiles community-level institutions rooted in Indigenous... (More >)
From Data to Decision Intelligence: The Potential of Decision Accelerator Labs
Article by Stefaan G. Verhulst: “We live at a moment of perhaps unprecedented global upheaval. From climate change to pandemics, from war to political disharmony, misinformation, and growing social inequality, policy and social change-makers today face not only new challenges but new types of challenges. In our increasingly complex and interconnected world, existing systems and institutions of governance, marked by hierarchical decision-making, are increasingly being replaced by overlapping nodes of multi-sector decision-making. Data is proving critical to these new forms of decision-making, along with associated (and emerging) phenomena such as advanced analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Yet while... (More >)
The Good and Bad of Anticipating Migration
Article by Sara Marcucci, Stefaan Verhulst, María Esther Cervantes, Elena Wüllhorst: “This blog is the first in a series that will be published weekly, dedicated to exploring innovative anticipatory methods for migration policy. Over the coming weeks, we will delve into various aspects of these methods, delving into their value, challenges, taxonomy, and practical applications. This first blog serves as an exploration of the value proposition and challenges inherent in innovative anticipatory methods for migration policy. We delve into the various reasons why these methods hold promise for informing more resilient, and proactive migration policies. These reasons include evidence-based... (More >)
