Revealing Algorithmic Rankers


Julia Stoyanovich and Ellen P. Goodman in the Freedom to Tinker Blog: “ProPublica’s story on “machine bias” in an algorithm used for sentencing defendants amplified calls to make algorithms more transparent and accountable. It has never been more clear that algorithms are political (Gillespie) and embody contested choices (Crawford), and that these choices are largely obscured from public scrutiny (Pasquale and Citron). We see it in controversies over Facebook’s newsfeed, or Google’s search results, or Twitter’s trending topics. Policymakers are considering how to operationalize “algorithmic ethics” and scholars are calling for accountable algorithms (Kroll, et al.).

One kind of algorithm that is at once especially obscure, powerful, and common is the ranking algorithm (Diakopoulos). Algorithms rank individuals to determine credit worthiness, desirability for college admissions and employment, and compatibility as dating partners. They encode ideas of what counts as the best schools, neighborhoods, and technologies. Despite their importance, we actually can know very little about why this person was ranked higher than another in a dating app, or why this school has a better rank than that one. This is true even if we have access to the ranking algorithm, for example, if we have complete knowledge about the factors used by the ranker and their relative weights, as is the case for US News ranking of colleges. In this blog post, we argue that syntactic transparency, wherein the rules of operation of an algorithm are more or less apparent, or even fully disclosed, still leaves stakeholders in the dark: those who are ranked, those who use the rankings, and the public whose world the rankings may shape.

Using algorithmic rankers as an example, we argue that syntactic transparency alone will not lead to true algorithmic accountability (Angwin). This is true even if the complete input data is publicly available. We advocate instead for interpretability, which rests on making explicit the interactions between the program and the data on which it acts. An interpretable algorithm allows stakeholders to understand the outcomes, not merely the process by which outcomes were produced….

Opacity in algorithmic rankers can lead to four types of harms:

(1) Due process / fairness. The subjects of the ranking cannot have confidence that their ranking is meaningful or correct, or that they have been treated like similarly situated subjects. Syntactic transparency helps with this but it will not solve the problem entirely, especially when people cannot interpret how weighted factors have impacted the outcome (Source 2 above).

(2) Hidden normative commitments. A ranking formula implements some vision of the “good.” Unless the public knows what factors were chosen and why, and with what weights assigned to each, it cannot assess the compatibility of this vision with other norms. Even where the formula is disclosed, real public accountability requires information about whether the outcomes are stable, whether the attribute weights are meaningful, and whether the outcomes are ultimately validated against the chosen norms. Did the vendor evaluate the actual effect of the features that are postulated as important by the scoring / ranking mode? Did the vendor take steps to compensate for mutually-reinforcing correlated inputs, and for possibly discriminatory inputs? Was stability of the ranker interrogated on real or realistic inputs? This kind of transparency around validation is important for both learning algorithms which operate according to rules that are constantly in flux and responsive to shifting data inputs, and for simpler score-based rankers that are likewise sensitive to the data.

(3) Interpretability. Especially where ranking algorithms are performing a public function (e.g., allocation of public resources or organ donations) or directly shaping the public sphere (e.g., ranking politicians), political legitimacy requires that the public be able to interpret algorithmic outcomes in a meaningful way. At the very least, they should know the degree to which the algorithm has produced robust results that improve upon a random ordering of the items (a ranking-specific confidence measure). In the absence of interpretability, there is a threat to public trust and to democratic participation, raising the dangers of an algocracy (Danaher) – rule by incontestable algorithms.

(4) Meta-methodological assessment. Following on from the interpretability concerns is a meta question about whether a ranking algorithm is the appropriate method for shaping decisions. There are simply some domains, and some instances of datasets, in which rank order is not appropriate. For example, if there are very many ties or near-ties induced by the scoring function, or if the ranking is too unstable, it may be better to present data through an alternative mechanism such as clustering. More fundamentally, we should question the use of an algorithmic process if its effects are not meaningful or if it cannot be explained. In order to understand whether the ranking methodology is valid, as a first order question, the algorithmic process needs to be interpretable….

The Ranking Facts show how the properties of the 10 highest-ranked items compare to the entire dataset (Relativity), making explicit cases where the ranges of values, and the median value, are different at the top-10 vs. overall (median is marked with red triangles for faculty size and average publication count). The label lists the attributes that have most impact on the ranking (Impact), presents the scoring formula (if known), and explains which attributes correlate with the computed score. Finally, the label graphically shows the distribution of scores (Stability), explaining that scores differ significantly up to top-10 but are nearly indistinguishable in later positions.

Something like the Rankings Facts makes the process and outcome of algorithmic ranking interpretable for consumers, and reduces the likelihood of opacity harms, discussed above. Beyond Ranking Facts, it is important to develop Interpretability tools that enable vendors to design fair, meaningful and stable ranking processes, and that support external auditing. Promising technical directions include, e.g., quantifying the influence of various features on the outcome under different assumptions about availability of data and code, and investigating whether provenance techniques can be used to generate explanations….(More)”

Evidence-based policy and policy as ‘translation’: designing a model for policymaking


Jo Ingold  and Mark Monaghan at the LSE Politics and Policy Blog: “It’s fair to say that research has never monopolised the policy process to the extent that policies are formulated solely, or even primarily, upon evidence. At the same time, research is never entirely absent from the process nor is it always exploited to justify a pre-existing policy stance as those who pronounce that we that we are now in an era of policy based evidence would have us believe. Often the reality lies somewhere in the middle. A number of studies have looked at how evidence may or may not have impacted on the policy decision-making process. Learning from other contexts, or ‘policy transfer’ is one other way of harnessing particular kinds of evidence, focusing on the migration of policies from one jurisdiction to another, whether within or across countries. Studies have begun to move away from theories of direct transfer to consider the processes involved in movement of ideas from one area to another. In effect, they consider the ‘translation’ of evidence and policy.

Our research brings together the evidence-based policymaking and ‘policy as translation’ literatures to try to shed light on the process by which evidence is used in policymaking. Although these literatures have developed separately (and to a large extent remain so) we see both as, at root, being concerned with the same issues, in particular how ideas, evidence and knowledge are integrated into the policymaking process. With EBPM there is a stated desire to formulate policies based on the best available evidence, while ‘policy as translation’ focuses on the ‘travel of ideas’ and views the policy process as fluid, dynamic and continually re-constituting, rather than a linear or rational ‘transfer’ process….

The Evidence Translation Model is intended to be recursive and includes five key dimensions which influence how evidence, ideas and knowledge are used in policy:

  • The substantive nature of the policy problem in the context of the Zeitgeist
  • Agenda-setting – where evidence is sought (fishing/farming) and what evidence is used
  • The filtration processes which shape and mould how evidence is used (flak/strain)
  • The policy apparatus for policy design and implementation
  • The role of ‘evidence translators’

Evidence Translation Model

work model
Source: Policy & Politics 2016 (44:2)

Our research draws attention to what is perceived to be evidence and at what stage of the policymaking process it is used….(More; See also authors’ article in Policy & Politics)”.

The Behavioral Economics Guide 2016


Guide edited by Alain Samson: “Since the publication of last year’s edition of the Behavioral Economics (BE) Guide, behavioral science has continued to exert its influence in various domains of scholarship and practical applications. The Guide’s host, behavioraleconomics.com, has grown to become a popular online hub for behavioral science ideas and resources. Our domain’s new blog publishes articles from academics and practitioners alike, reflecting the wide range of areas in which BE ideas are generated and used. …

Past editions of the BE Guide focused on BE theory (2014) and behavioral science practice (2015). The aim of this year’s issue is to provide different perspectives on the field and novel applications. This editorial1 offers a selection of recent (often critical) thinking around behavioral economics research and applications. It is followed by Q&As with Richard Thaler and Varun Gauri. The subsequent section provides a range of absorbing contributions from authors who work in applied behavioral science. The final section includes a further expanded encyclopedia of BE (and related) concepts, a new listing of behavioral science events, more graduate programs, and a larger selection of journals, reflecting the growth of the field and our continued efforts to compile relevant information….(More)”

Can You Really Spot Cancer Through a Search Engine?


Michael Reilly at MIT Technology Review: “In the world of cancer treatment, early diagnosis can mean the difference between being cured and being handed a death sentence. At the very least, catching a tumor early increases a patient’s chances of living longer.

Researchers at Microsoft think they may know of a tool that could help detect cancers before you even think to go to a doctor: your search engine.

In a study published Tuesday in the Journal of Oncology Practice, the Microsoft team showed that it was able to mine the anonymized search queries of 6.4 million Bing users to find searches that indicated someone had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (such as “why did I get cancer in pancreas,” and “I was told I have pancreatic cancer what to expect”). Then, looking at people’s search patterns before their diagnosis, they identified patterns of search that indicated they had been experiencing symptoms before they ever sought medical treatment.

Pancreatic cancer is a particularly deadly form of the disease. It’s the fourth-leading cause of cancer death in the U.S., and three-quarters of people diagnosed with it die within a year. But catching it early still improves the odds of living longer.

By looking for searches for symptoms—which include yellowing, itchy skin, and abdominal pain—and checking the user’s search history for signs of other risk factors like alcoholism and obesity, the team was often able to identify searches for symptoms up to five months before they were diagnosed.

In their paper, the team acknowledged the limitations of the work, saying that it is not meant to provide people with a diagnosis. Instead they suggested that it might one day be turned into a tool that warns users whose searches indicate they may have symptoms of cancer.

“The goal is not to perform the diagnosis,” said Ryen White, one of the researchers, on a post on Microsoft’s blog. “The goal is to help those at highest risk to engage with medical professionals who can actually make the true diagnosis.”…(More)”

Twiplomacy Study 2016


Executive Summary: “Social media has become diplomacy’s significant other. It has gone from being an afterthought to being the very first thought of world leaders and governments across the globe, as audiences flock to their newsfeeds for the latest news. This recent worldwide embrace of online channels has brought with it a wave of openness and transparency that has never been experienced before. Social media provides a platform for unconditional communication, and has become a communicator’s most powerful tool. Twitter in particular, has even become a diplomatic ‘barometer, a tool used to analyze and forecast international relations.

There is a vast array of social networks for government communicators to choose from. While some governments and foreign ministries still ponder the pros and cons of any social media engagement, others have gone beyond Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to reach their target audiences, even embracing emerging platforms such as Snapchat, WhatsApp and Telegram where communications are under the radar and almost impossible to track.

Burson-Marsteller’s 2016 Twiplomacy study has been expanded to include other social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, as well as more niche digital diplomacy platforms such as Snapchat, LinkedIn, Google+,Periscope and Vine.

There is a growing digital divide between governments that are active on social media with dedicated teams and those that see digital engagement as an afterthought and so devote few resources to it. There is still a small number of government leaders who refuse to embrace the new digital world and, for these few, their community managers struggle to bring their organizations into the digital century.

Over the past year, the most popular world leaders on social media have continued to increase their audiences, while new leaders have emerged in the Twittersphere. Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Barack Obama have all made a significant impact on Twitter and Facebook over the past year.

Obama’s social media communication has become even more personal through his @POTUS Twitter account and Facebook page, and the first “president of the social media age” will leave the White House in January 2017 with an incredible 137 million fans, followers and subscribers. Beyond merely Twitter and Facebook, world leaders such as the Argentinian President have also become active on new channels like Snapchat to reach a younger audience and potential future voters. Similarly, a number of governments, mainly in Latin America, have started to use Periscope, a cost-effective medium to live-stream their press conferences.

We have witnessed occasional public interactions between leaders, namely the friendly fighting talk between the Obamas, the Queen of England and Canada’s Justin Trudeau. Foreign ministries continue to expand their diplomatic and digital networks by following each other and creating coalitions on specific topics, in particular the fight against ISIS….

A number of world leaders, including the President of Colombia and Australia’s Julie Bishop, also use emojis to brighten up their tweets, creating what can be described as a new diplomatic sign language. The Foreign Ministry in Finland has even produced its own set of 49 emoticons depicting summer and winter in the Nordic country.

We asked a number of digital leaders of some of the best connected foreign ministries and governments to share their thoughts on their preferred social media channel and examples of their best campaigns on our blog. You will learn:

Here is our list of the #Twiplomacy Top Twenty Twitterati in 2016….(More)”

Open data + increased disclosure = better public-private partnerships


David Bloomgarden and Georg Neumann at Fomin Blog: “The benefits of open and participatory public procurement are increasingly being recognized by international bodies such as the Group of 20 major economies, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and multilateral development banks. Value for money, more competition, and better goods and services for citizens all result from increased disclosure of contract data. Greater openness is also an effective tool to fight fraud and corruption.

However, because public-private partnerships (PPPs) are planned during a long timeframe and involve a large number of groups, therefore, implementing greater levels of openness in disclosure is complicated. This complexity can be a challenge to good design. Finding a structured and transparent approach to managing PPP contract data is fundamental for a project to be accepted and used by its local community….

In open contracting, all data is disclosed during the public procurement process—from the planning stage, to the bidding and awarding of the contract, to the monitoring of the implementation. A global open source data standard is used to publish that data, which is already being implemented in countries as diverse as Canada, Paraguay, and the Ukraine. Using open data throughout the contracting process provides opportunities to innovate in managing bids, fixing problems, and integrating feedback as needed. Open contracting contributes to the overall social and environmental sustainability of infrastructure investments.

In the case of Mexico’s airport, the project publishes details of awarded contracts, including visualizing the flow of funds and detailing the full amounts of awarded contracts and renewable agreements. Standardized, timely, and open data that follow global standards such as the Open Contracting Data Standard will make this information useful for analysis of value for money, cost-benefit, sustainability, and monitoring performance. Crucially, open contracting will shift the focus from the inputs into a PPP, to the outputs: the goods and services being delivered.

Benefits of open data for PPPs

We think that better and open data will lead to better PPPs. Here’s how:

1. Using user feedback to fix problems

The Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has been a leader in transparent PPP contracts with full proactive disclosure of the contract terms, as well as of other relevant project information—a practice that puts a government under more scrutiny but makes for better projects in the long run.

According to Marcos Siqueira, former head of the PPP Unit in Minas Gerais, “An adequate transparency policy can provide enough information to users so they can become contract watchdogs themselves.”

For example, a public-private contract was signed in 2014 to build a $300 million waste treatment plant for 2.5 million people in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. As the team members conducted appraisals, they disclosed them on the Internet. In addition, the team held around 20 public meetings and identified all the stakeholders in the project. One notable result of the sharing and discussion of this information was the relocation of the facility to a less-populated area. When the project went to the bidding phase, it was much closer to the expectations of its various stakeholders.

2. Making better decisions on contracts and performance

Chile has been a leader in developing PPPs (which it refers to as concessions) for several decades, in a range of sectors: urban and inter-urban roads, seaports, airports, hospitals, and prisons. The country tops the list for the best enabling environment for PPPs in Latin America and the Caribbean, as measured by Infrascope, an index produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit and the Multilateral Investment Fund of the IDB Group.

Chile’s distinction is that it discloses information on performance of PPPs that are underway. The government’s Concessions Unit regularly publishes summaries of the projects during their different phases, including construction and operation. The reports are non-technical, yet include all the necessary information to understand the scope of the project…(More)”

Building Data Responsibility into Humanitarian Action


Stefaan Verhulst at The GovLab: “Next Monday, May 23rd, governments, non-profit organizations and citizen groups will gather in Istanbul at the first World Humanitarian Summit. A range of important issues will be on the agenda, not least of which the refugee crisis confronting the Middle East and Europe. Also on the agenda will be an issue of growing importance and relevance, even if it does not generate front-page headlines: the increasing potential (and use) of data in the humanitarian context.

To explore this topic, a new paper, “Building Data Responsibility into Humanitarian Action,” is being released today, and will be presented tomorrow at the Understanding Risk Forum. This paper is the result of a collaboration between the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), The GovLab (NYU Tandon School of Engineering), the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, and Leiden UniversityCentre for Innovation. It seeks to identify the potential benefits and risks of using data in the humanitarian context, and begins to outline an initial framework for the responsible use of data in humanitarian settings.

Both anecdotal and more rigorously researched evidence points to the growing use of data to address a variety of humanitarian crises. The paper discusses a number of data risk case studies, including the use of call data to fight Malaria in Africa; satellite imagery to identify security threats on the border between Sudan and South Sudan; and transaction data to increase the efficiency of food delivery in Lebanon. These early examples (along with a few others discussed in the paper) have begun to show the opportunities offered by data and information. More importantly, they also help us better understand the risks, including and especially those posed to privacy and security.

One of the broader goals of the paper is to integrate the specific and the theoretical, in the process building a bridge between the deep, contextual knowledge offered by initiatives like those discussed above and the broader needs of the humanitarian community. To that end, the paper builds on its discussion of case studies to begin establishing a framework for the responsible use of data in humanitarian contexts. It identifies four “Minimum Humanitarian standards for the Responsible use of Data” and four “Characteristics of Humanitarian Organizations that use Data Responsibly.” Together, these eight attributes can serve as a roadmap or blueprint for humanitarian groups seeking to use data. In addition, the paper also provides a four-step practical guide for a data responsibility framework (see also earlier blog)….(More)” Full Paper: Building Data Responsibility into Humanitarian Action

Impact of open government: Mapping the research landscape


Stephen Davenport at OGP Blog: “Government reformers and development practitioners in the open government space are experiencing the heady times associated with a newly-defined agenda. The opportunity for innovation and positive change can at times feel boundless. Yet, working in a nascent field also means a relative lack of “proven” tools and solutions (to such extent as they ever exist in development).

More research on the potential for open government initiatives to improve lives is well underway. However, keeping up with the rapidly evolving landscape of ongoing research, emerging hypotheses, and high-priority knowledge gaps has been a challenge, even as investment in open government activities has accelerated. This becomes increasing important as we gather to talk progress at the OGP Africa Regional Meeting 2016(link is external) and GIFT(link is external) consultations in Cape Town next week (May 4-6) .

Who’s doing what?
To advance the state of play, a new report commissioned by the World Bank, “Open Government Impact and Outcomes: Mapping the Landscape of Ongoing Research”(link is external), categorizes and takes stock of existing research. The report represents the first output of a newly-formed consortium (link is external) that aims to generate practical, evidence-based guidance for open government stakeholders, building on and complementing the work of organizations across the academic-practitioner spectrum.

The mapping exercise led to the creation of an interactive platform (link is external) with detailed information on how to find out more about each of the research projects covered, organized by a new typology for open government interventions. The inventory is limited in scope given practical and other considerations. It includes only projects that are currently underway. It is meant to be a forward-looking overview, rather than a literature review–and are relatively large and international in nature.

Charting a course: How can the World Bank add value?
The scope for increasing the open government knowledge base remains vast. The report suggests that, given its role as a lender, convener, and a policy advisor the World Bank is well positioned to complement and support existing research in a number of ways, such as:

  • Taking a demand-driven approach, focusing on specific areas where it can identify lessons for stakeholders seeking to turn open government enthusiasm into tangible results.
  • Linking researchers with governments and practitioners to study specific areas of interest (in particular, access to information and social accountability interventions).
  • Evaluating the impact of open government reforms against baseline data that may not be public yet, but that are accessible to the World Bank.
  • Contributing to a better understanding of the role and impact of ICTs through work like the recently-published study (link is external)that examines the relationship between digital citizen engagement and government responsiveness.
  • Ensuring that World Bank loans and projects are conceived as opportunities for knowledge generation, while incorporating the most relevant and up-to-date evidence on what works in different contexts.
  • Leveraging its involvement in the Open Government Partnership to help stakeholders make evidence-based reform commitments….(More)

Data innovation: where to start? With the road less taken


Giulio Quaggiotto at Nesta: “Over the past decade we’ve seen an explosion in the amount of data we create, with more being captured about our lives than ever before. As an industry, the public sector creates an enormous amount of information – from census data to tax data to health data. When it comes to use of the data however, despite many initiatives trying to promote open and big data for public policy as well as evidence-based policymaking, we feel there is still a long way to go.

Why is that? Data initiatives are often created under the assumption that if data is available, people (whether citizens or governments) will use it. But this hasn’t necessarily proven to be the case, and this approach neglects analysis of power and an understanding of the political dynamics at play around data (particularly when data is seen as an output rather than input).

Many data activities are also informed by the ‘extractive industry’ paradigm: citizens and frontline workers are seen as passive ‘data producers’ who hand over their information for it to be analysed and mined behind closed doors by ‘the experts’.

Given budget constraints facing many local and central governments, even well intentioned initiatives often take an incremental, passive transparency approach (i.e. let’s open the data first then see what happens), or they adopt a ‘supply/demand’ metaphor to data provision and usage…..

As a response to these issues, this blog series will explore the hypothesis that putting the question of citizen and government agency – rather than openness, volume or availability – at the centre of data initiatives has the potential to unleash greater, potentially more disruptive innovation and to focus efforts (ultimately leading to cost savings).

Our argument will be that data innovation initiatives should be informed by the principles that:

  • People closer to the problem are the best positioned to provide additional context to the data and potentially act on solutions (hence the importance of “thick data“).

  • Citizens are active agents rather than passive providers of ‘digital traces’.

  • Governments are both users and providers of data.

  • We should ask at every step of the way how can we empower communities and frontline workers to take better decisions over time, and how can we use data to enhance the decision making of every actor in the system (from government to the private sector, from private citizens to social enterprises) in their role of changing things for the better… (More)

 

7 projects that state and local governments can reuse


Melody Kramer at 18F: “We’re starting to see state and local governments adapt or use 18F products or tools. Nothing could make us happier; all of our code (and content) is available for anyone to use and reusable.

There are a number of open source projects that 18F has worked on that could work particularly well at any level of government. We’re highlighting seven below:

Public website analytics

A screen shot of the City of Boulder's analytics dashboard

We worked with the Digital Analytics Program, the U.S. Digital Service (USDS), and the White House to build and host a dashboard showing real-time U.S. federal government web traffic. This helps staff and the public learn about how people use government websites. The dashboard itself is open source and can be adapted for a state or local government. We recently interviewed folks from Philadelphia, Boulder, and the state of Tennessee about how they’ve adapted the analytics dashboard for their own use.

Quick mini-sites for content

A screen shot of an 18F guide on the pages platform

We built a responsive, accessible website template (based on open source work by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) that we use primarily for documentation and guides. You can take the website template, adapt the colors and fonts to reflect your own style template, and have an easy way to release notes about a project. We’ve used this template to write a guide on accessibility in government, content guidelines, and a checklist for what needs to take place before we release software. You’re also welcome to take our content and adapt it for your own needs — what we write is in the public domain.

Insight into how people interact with government

People depend on others (for example, family members, friends, and public library staff) for help with government websites, but government services are not set up to support this type of assistance.

Over the last several months, staff from General Service Administration’s USAGov and 18F teams have been talking to Americans around the country about their interactions with the federal government. The goal of the research was to identify and create cross-agency services and resources to improve how the government interacts with the public. Earlier this month, we published all of our research. You can read the full report with findings or explore what we learned on the 18F blog.

Market research for procurement

We developed a tool that helps you easily conduct market research across a number of categories for acquiring professional labor. You can read about how the city of Boston is using the tool to conduct market research.

Vocabulary for user-centered design

We released a deck of method cards that help research and design teams communicate a shared vocabulary across teams and agencies.

Task management

We recently developed a checklist program that help users manage complex to-do lists. One feature: checklist items deadlines can be set according to a fixed date or relative to completion of other items. This means you can create checklist for all new employees, for example, and say “Task five should be completed four days after task four,” whenever task four is completed by an employee.

Help small businesses find opportunities

FBOpen is a set of open source tools to help small businesses search for opportunities to work with the U.S. government. FBOpen presents an Application Programming Interface (API) to published Federal contracting opportunities, as well as implementing a beautiful graphical user interface to the same opportunities.

Anyone who wishes to may reuse this code to create their own website, free of charge and unencumbered by obligations….(More)”