The story of the R number: How an obscure epidemiological figure took over our lives

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Gavin Freeguard: “Covid-19 did not only dominate our lives in April 2020. It also dominated the list of new words entered into the Oxford English Dictionary.

Alongside Covid-19 itself (noun, “An acute respiratory illness in humans caused by a coronavirus”), the vocabulary of the virus included “self-quarantine”, “social distancing”, “infodemic”, “flatten the curve”, “personal protective equipment”, “elbow bump”, “WFH” and much else. But nestled among this pantheon of new pandemic words was a number, one that would shape our conversations, our politics, our lives for the next 18 months like no other: “Basic reproduction number (R0): The average number of cases of an infectious disease arising by transmission from a single infected individual, in a population that has not previously encountered the disease.”

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“There have been many important figures in this pandemic,” wrote The Times in January 2021, “but one has come to tower over the rest: the reproduction rate. The R number, as everyone calls it, has been used by the government to justify imposing and lifting lockdowns. Indeed while there are many important numbers — gross domestic product, parliamentary majorities, interest rates — few can compete right now with R” (tinyurl.com/v7j6cth9).

Descriptions of it at the start of the pandemic made R the star of the disaster movie reality we lived through. And it wasn’t just a breakout star of the UK’s coronavirus press conferences; in Germany, (then) Chancellor Angela Merkel made the most of her scientific background to explain the meaning of R and its consequences to the public (tinyurl.com/mva7urw5).

But for others, the “obsession” (Professor Linda Bauld, University of Edinburgh) with “the pandemic’s misunderstood metric” (Nature: tinyurl.com/y3sr6n6m) has been “a distraction”, an “unhelpful focus”; as the University of Edinburgh’s Professor Mark Woolhouse told one parliamentary select committee, “we’ve created a monster”.

How did this epidemiological number come to dominate our discourse? How useful is it? And where does it come from?…(More)”.

Future-Proofing Transparency: Re-Thinking Public Record Governance For the Age of Big Data

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Beatriz Botero Arcila: “Public records, public deeds, and even open data portals often include personal information that can now be easily accessed online. Yet, for all the recent attention given to informational privacy and data protection, scant literature exists on the governance of personal information that is available in public documents. This Article examines the critical issue of balancing privacy and transparency within public record governance in the age of Big Data.

With Big Data and powerful machine learning algorithms, personal information in public records can easily be used to infer sensitive data about people or aggregated to create a comprehensive personal profile of almost anyone. This information is public and open, however, for many good reasons: ensuring political accountability, facilitating democratic participation, enabling economic transactions, combating illegal activities such as money laundering and terrorism financing, and facilitating. Can the interest in record publicity coexist with the growing ease of deanonymizing and revealing sensitive information about individuals?

This Article addresses this question from a comparative perspective, focusing on US and EU access to information law. The Article shows that the publicity of records was, in the past and not withstanding its presumptive public nature, protected because most people would not trouble themselves to go to public offices to review them, and it was practical impossible to aggregate them to draw extensive profiles about people. Drawing from this insight and contemporary debates on data governance, this Article challenges the binary classification of data as either published or not and proposes a risk-based framework that re-insert that natural friction to public record governance by leveraging techno-legal methods in how information is published and accessed…(More)”.

Defending the rights of refugees and migrants in the digital age

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Primer by Amnesty International: “This is an introduction to the pervasive and rapid deployment of digital technologies in asylum and migration management systems across the globe including the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union. Defending the rights of refugees and migrants in the digital age, highlights some of the key digital technology developments in asylum and migration management systems, in particular systems that process large quantities of data, and the human rights issues arising from their use. This introductory briefing aims to build our collective understanding of these emerging technologies and hopes to add to wider advocacy efforts to stem their harmful effects…(More)”.

AI for Good: Applications in Sustainability, Humanitarian Action, and Health

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Book by Juan M. Lavista Ferres, and William B. Weeks: “…delivers an insightful and fascinating discussion of how one of the world’s most recognizable software companies is tackling intractable social problems with the power of artificial intelligence (AI). In the book, you’ll see real in-the-field examples of researchers using AI with replicable methods and reusable AI code to inspire your own uses.

The authors also provide:

  • Easy-to-follow, non-technical explanations of what AI is and how it works
  • Examples of the use of AI for scientists working on mitigating climate change, showing how AI can better analyze data without human bias, remedy pattern recognition deficits, and make use of satellite and other data on a scale never seen before so policy makers can make informed decisions
  • Real applications of AI in humanitarian action, whether in speeding disaster relief with more accurate data for first responders or in helping address populations that have experienced adversity with examples of how analytics is being used to promote inclusivity
  • A deep focus on AI in healthcare where it is improving provider productivity and patient experience, reducing per-capita healthcare costs, and increasing care access, equity, and outcomes
  • Discussions of the future of AI in the realm of social benefit organizations and efforts…(More)”

Winning the Battle of Ideas: Exposing Global Authoritarian Narratives and Revitalizing Democratic Principles

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Report by Joseph Siegle: “Democracies are engaged in an ideological competition with autocracies that could reshape the global order. Narratives are a potent, asymmetric instrument of power, as they reframe events in a way that conforms to and propagates a particular worldview. Over the past decade and a half, autocracies like Russia and China have led the effort to disseminate authoritarian narratives globally, seeking to normalize authoritarianism as an equally viable and legitimate form of government. How do authoritarian narratives reframe an unappealing value proposition, with the aim of making the democratic path seem less attractive and offering authoritarianism as an alternative model? How can democracies reemphasize their core principles and remind audiences of democracy’s moral, developmental, and security advantages?…(More)”.

In the long run: the future as a political idea

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Book by Jonathan White: “Democracy is future-oriented and self-correcting: today’s problems can be solved, we are told, in tomorrow’s elections. But the biggest issues facing the modern world – from climate collapse and pandemics to recession and world war – each apparently bring us to the edge of the irreversible. What happens to democracy when the future seems no longer open?

In this eye-opening history of ideas, Jonathan White investigates how politics has long been directed by shifting visions of the future, from the birth of ideologies in the nineteenth century to Cold War secrecy and the excesses of the neoliberal age.

As an inescapable sense of disaster defines our politics, White argues that a political commitment to the long-term may be the best way to safeguard democracy. Wide in scope and sharply observed, In the Long Run is a history of the future that urges us to make tomorrow new again…(More)”.

Can the Internet be Governed?

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Akash Kapur: “…During the past decade or so, however, governments around the world have grown impatient with the notion of Internet autarky. A trickle of halfhearted interventions has built into what the legal scholar Anu Bradford calls a “cascade of regulation.” In “Digital Empires” (Oxford), her comprehensive and insightful book on global Internet policy, she describes a series of skirmishes—between regulators and companies, and among regulators themselves—whose outcomes will “shape the future ethos of the digital society and define the soul of the digital economy.”

Other recent books echo this sense of the network as being at a critical juncture. Tom Wheeler, a former chairman of the F.C.C., argues in “Techlash: Who Makes the Rules in the Digital Gilded Age?” (Brookings) that we are at “a legacy moment for this generation to determine whether, and how, it will assert the public interest in the new digital environment.” In “The Internet Con” (Verso), Doctorow makes a passionate case for “relief from manipulation, high-handed moderation, surveillance, price-gouging, disgusting or misleading algorithmic suggestions”; he argues that it is time to “dismantle Big Tech’s control over our digital lives and devolve control to the people.” In “Read Write Own” (Random House), Chris Dixon, a venture capitalist, says that a network dominated by a handful of private interests “is neither the internet I want to see nor the world I wish to live in.” He writes, “Think about how much of your life you live online, how much of your identity resides there. . . . Whom do you want in control of that world?”…(More)”.

Don’t Talk to People Like They’re Chatbots

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Albert Fox Cahn and Bruce Schneier: “For most of history, communicating with a computer has not been like communicating with a person. In their earliest years, computers required carefully constructed instructions, delivered through punch cards; then came a command-line interface, followed by menus and options and text boxes. If you wanted results, you needed to learn the computer’s language.

This is beginning to change. Large language models—the technology undergirding modern chatbots—allow users to interact with computers through natural conversation, an innovation that introduces some baggage from human-to-human exchanges. Early on in our respective explorations of ChatGPT, the two of us found ourselves typing a word that we’d never said to a computer before: “Please.” The syntax of civility has crept into nearly every aspect of our encounters; we speak to this algebraic assemblage as if it were a person—even when we know that it’s not.

Right now, this sort of interaction is a novelty. But as chatbots become a ubiquitous element of modern life and permeate many of our human-computer interactions, they have the potential to subtly reshape how we think about both computers and our fellow human beings.

One direction that these chatbots may lead us in is toward a society where we ascribe humanity to AI systems, whether abstract chatbots or more physical robots. Just as we are biologically primed to see faces in objects, we imagine intelligence in anything that can hold a conversation. (This isn’t new: People projected intelligence and empathy onto the very primitive 1960s chatbot, Eliza.) We say “please” to LLMs because it feels wrong not to…(More)”.

Collective action for responsible AI in health

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

OECD Report: “Artificial intelligence (AI) will have profound impacts across health systems, transforming health care, public health, and research. Responsible AI can accelerate efforts toward health systems being more resilient, sustainable, equitable, and person-centred. This paper provides an overview of the background and current state of artificial intelligence in health, perspectives on opportunities, risks, and barriers to success. The paper proposes several areas to be explored for policy-makers to advance the future of responsible AI in health that is adaptable to change, respects individuals, champions equity, and achieves better health outcomes for all.

The areas to be explored relate to trust, capacity building, evaluation, and collaboration. This recognises that the primary forces that are needed to unlock the value from artificial intelligence are people-based and not technical…(More)”

When Farmland Becomes the Front Line, Satellite Data and Analysis Can Fight Hunger

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Inbal Becker-Reshef and Mary Mitkish: “When a shock to the global food system occurs—such as during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022—collecting the usual ground-based data is all but impossible. The Russia–Ukraine war has turned farmland into the front lines of a war zone. In this situation, it is unreasonable to expect civilians to walk onto fields riddled with land mines and damaged by craters to collect information on what has been planted, where it was planted, and if it could be harvested. The inherent danger of ground-based data collection, especially in occupied territories of the conflict, has demanded a different way to assess planted and harvested areas and forecast crop production.

Satellite-based information can provide this evidence quickly and reliably. At NASA Harvest, NASA’s Global Food Security and Agriculture Consortium, one of our main aims is to use satellite-based information to fill gaps in the agriculture information ecosystem. Since the start of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, we have been using satellite imagery to estimate the impact of the war on Ukraine’s agricultural lands at the request of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. Our work demonstrates how effective this approach can be for delivering critical and timely insights for decisionmakers.

Prior to the war, Ukraine accounted for over 10% of the world’s wheat, corn, and barley trade and was the number one sunflower oil exporter, accounting for close to 50% of the global market. In other words, food produced in Ukraine is critical for its national economy, for global trade, and for feeding millions across the globe…(More)”.