Data Reveals the True Impact of the Coronavirus Outbreak

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Gian Volpicelli at Wired: “Something was wrong with Malaysia’s internet. It was March 13, and the more Simon Angus looked at the data, the more he suspected that the country might be in the midst of a coronavirus crisis.

Angus is an academic at Monash University and the cofounder of Kaspr Datahaus, a Melbourne-based company that analyses the quality of global internet connection to glean economic and social insights. The company monitors millions of internet-connected devices to gauge internet speed across the world. For them, a sudden deterioration in a country’s internet speed means that something is putting the network under strain. In recent weeks Kaspr’s theory is that the “something” is linked to the Covid-19 epidemics – as people who are working from home, or quarantining, or staying home as a precaution start using the internet more intensely than usual.

“For people who are in lockdown, or in panic mode, or in self-isolation, the internet has become a fundamentally important part of their information source, and of their consumption of entertainment,” Angus says.

To put it bluntly, when millions more turn on Netflix, scroll through TikTok, start a Zoom call, play Fortnite, or simply scroll idly through Twitter, that has repercussions on the quality of the country’s internet. (That is why EU commissioner Thierry Breton asked Netflix to restrict high-definition streaming until the emergency is over.)

Now, Angus’ scanning had detected that Malaysia’s internet had become over five percent slower in the March 12 to 13 timespan—worse even than in locked-down Italy. Officially, though, Malaysia had only 129 confirmed coronavirus cases—a relatively low number, although it had been inching up for a week.

What was happening, though, was that the population was cottoning on to the government’s sloppy handling of the pandemic. In late February, in what would turn out to be a monumental blunder, authorities had allowed a religious mass gathering to go ahead in Kuala Lumpur. Once Covid-19 cases linked to the event started to emerge, the government scrambled to find all the attendees, but got the numbers wrong—first saying that only 5,000 people at the gathering were Malaysia residents, then updating the figure to 10,000 and then 14,500. With the mess laid bare, many Malaysians seemed to have decided to stay at home out of sheer self-preservation…(More)”.

Privacy and Pandemics

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Emily Benson at the Bertelsmann Foundation: “In bucolic China, a child has braved cold temperatures for some fresh outdoors air. Overhead, a drone hovers. Its loudspeaker, a haunting combination of human direction in the machine age, chides him for being outdoors. “Hey kid! We’re in unusual times… The coronavirus is very serious… run!!” it barks. “Staying at home is contributing to society.”

The ferocious spread of COVID-19 in 2020 has revealed stark policy differences among governments. The type of actions and degrees of severity with which governments have responded varies widely, but one pressing issue the crisis raises is how COVID-19 will affect civil liberties in the digital age.

The Chinese Approach

Images of riot gear with heat-sensing cameras and temperature gun checks in metro stations have been plastered in the news since the beginning of 2020, when the Chinese government undertook drastic measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. The government quickly set about enacting strict restraints on society that dictated where people went and what they could do.

In China, Alipay, an Alibaba subsidiary and equivalent of Elon Musk’s PayPal, joined forces with Ant Financial to launch Alipay Health Code, a software for smart phones. It indicates individuals’ health in green, yellow, and red, ultimately determining where citizens can and cannot go. The government has since mandated that citizens use this software, despite inaccuracies of temperature-reading technology that has led to the confinement of otherwise healthy individuals. It also remains unclear how this data will be used going forward–whether it will be stored indefinitely or used to augment civilians’ social scores. As the New York Times noted, this Chinese gathering of data would be akin to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) using data from Amazon, Facebook, and Google to track citizens and then share that data with law enforcement–something that no longer seems so far-fetched.

An Evolving EU

The European Union is home to what is arguably the most progressive privacy regime in the world. In May 2018, the EU implemented the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). While processing personal data is generally permitted in cases in which individuals have provided explicit consent to the use of their data, several exceptions to these mining prohibitions are proving problematic in the time of COVID-19. For example, GDPR Article 9 provides an exception for public interest, permitting the processing of personal data when it is necessary for reasons of substantial public interest, and on the basis of Union or Member State law which must be proportionate to the aim pursued…(More)”.

Global Data Access for Solving Rare Disease: A Health Economics Value Framework

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

WEF Report: “…The genomic nature of rare disease suggests an opportunity. By bringing together genomic, phenotypic, and clinical data at a global scale, individual countries and hospitals carrying out genomics research could come up with more answers both to diagnose currently undiagnosed or misdiagnosed people with rare disease and to develop treatments.

With an estimated 15.2 million individuals expected to have clinical genomic testing for a rare condition within the next five years, it is time to evaluate the economic and societal benefits of developing a system that can share this data without compromising privacy.

The answer is a technical solution called a “federated data system”. This is a data superstructure that can aggregate remote data sets for querying while still allowing for localized, data control and security. The groupings are independent, but interoperable. They have their own governance and the information inside them is protected, but they offer evidence – conclusions gathered from the data – that can be used to feed a much larger, global data engine.

The result is a robust and well-annotated dataset that in the case of rare diseases can be added to and then used by different countries to enable global and country-specific solutions to diagnosis, treatment, patient trial recruitment and management of rare diseases. Developing federated data systems is one of the many investments countries are currently considering. Yet since its implementation can be costly (about half a million US dollars) is it the right solution?…(More)”.

Toward Building The Data Infrastructure And Ecosystem We Need To Tackle Pandemics And Other Dynamic Societal And Environmental Threats

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

CALL FOR ACTION: “The spread of COVID-19 is a human tragedy and a worldwide crisis. The social and economic costs are huge, and they are contributing to a global slowdown. Despite the amount of data collected daily, we have not been able to leverage them to accelerate our understanding and action to counter COVID-19. As a result we have entered a global state of profound uncertainty and anxiety.

The current pandemic has not only shown vulnerabilities in our public health systems but has also made visible our failure to re-use data between the public and private sectors — what we call data collaboratives — to inform decision makers how to fight dynamic threats like the novel Coronavirus.

We have known for years that the re-use of aggregated and anonymized data — including from telecommunications, social media, and satellite feeds — can improve traditional models for tracking disease propagation. Telecommunications data has, for instance, been re-used to support the response to Ebola in Africa (Orange) and swine flu in Mexico (Telefónica). Social media data has been re-used to understand public perceptions around Zika in Brazil (Facebook). Satellite data has been used to track seasonal measles in Niger using nighttime lights. Geospatial data has similarly supported malaria surveillance and eradication efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa. In general, many infectious diseases have been monitored using mobile phones and mobility.

The potential and realized contributions of these and other data collaboratives reveal that the supply of and demand for data and data expertise are widely dispersed. They are spread across government, the private sector, and civil society and often poorly matched.

Much data needed by researchers is never made accessible to those who could productively put it to use while much data that is released is never used in a systematic and sustainable way during and post crisis.

This failure results in tremendous inefficiencies and costly delays in how we respond. It means lost opportunities to save lives and a persistent lack of preparation for future threats….(More)”. SIGN AND JOIN HERE.

See also Living Repository of Data4COVID19 Collaboratives.

The Coronavirus Tech Handbook

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

About: “The Coronavirus Tech Handbook provides a space for technologists, specialists, civic organisations and public & private institutions to collaborate on a rapid and sophisticated response to the coronavirus outbreak. It is an active and evolving resource with thousands of expert contributors.

In less than two weeks it has grown to cover areas including:

  • Detailed guidance for doctors and nurses,
  • Advice and tools for educators adjusting to remote teaching, 
  • Community of open-source ventilator designers
  • Comprehensive data and models for forecasting the spread of the virus.

Coronavirus Tech Handbook’s goal is to create a rapidly evolving open source technical knowledge base that will help all institutions across civil society and the public sector collaborate to fight the outbreak. 

Coronavirus Tech Handbook is not a place for the public to get advice, but a place for specialists to collaborate and make sure the best solutions are quickly shared and deployed….(More)”.

How scientists are crowdsourcing a coronavirus treatment

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Article by Evan Nicole Brown: “… There’s currently no cure for COVID-19, but scientists are working on drugs that could help slow its spread. Fortunately, citizens can get involved in the process.

Foldit is an online video game that challenges players to fold various proteins into shapes where they are stable. Generally, folding proteins allows scientists (and citizens) to design new proteins from scratch, but in the case of coronavirus, Foldit players are trying to design the drugs to combat it. “Coronavirus has a ‘spike’ protein that it uses to recognize human cells,” says Brian Koepnick, a biochemist and researcher with the University of Washington’s Institute for Protein Design who has been using Foldit for protein research for six years. “Foldit players are designing new protein drugs that can bind to the COVID spike and block this recognition, [which could] potentially stop the virus from infecting more cells in an individual who has already been exposed to the virus.”

“In Foldit, you change the shape of a protein model to optimize your score. This score is actually a sophisticated calculation of the fold’s potential energy,” says Koepnick, adding that professional researchers use an identical score function in their work. “The coronavirus puzzles are set up such that high-scoring models have a better chance of actually binding to the target spike protein.” Ultimately, high-scoring solutions are analyzed by researchers and considered for real-world use….(More)”.

Like Zika, The Public Is Heading To Wikipedia During The COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Farah Qaiser at Forbes: “A new study out in the PLOS Computational Biology journal shows that public attention in the midst of the Zika virus epidemic was largely driven by media coverage, rather than the epidemic’s magnitude or extent, highlighting the importance of mass media coverage when it comes to public health. This is reflected in the ongoing COVID-19 situation, where to date, the main 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic Wikipedia page has over ten million page views.

The 2015-2016 Zika virus epidemic began in Northeastern Brazil, and spread across South and North America. The Zika virus was largely spread by infected Aedes mosquitoes, where symptoms included a fever, headache, itching, and muscle pain. It could also be transmitted between pregnant women and their fetuses, causing microcephaly, where a baby’s head was much smaller than expected.

Similar to the ongoing COVID-19 situation, the media coverage around the Zika virus epidemic shaped public opinion and awareness.

“We knew that it was relevant, and very important, for public health to understand how the media and news shapes the attention of [the] public during epidemic outbreaks,” says Michele Tizzoni, a principal investigator based at the Institute for Scientific Interchange (ISI) Foundation. …

Today, the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic Wikipedia page has around ten million page views. As per Toby Negrin, the Wikimedia Foundation’s Chief Product Officer, this page has been edited over 12K times by nearly 1,900 different editors. The page is currently semi-protected – a common practice for Wikipedia pages that are relevant to current news stories.

In an email, Negrin shared that “the day after the World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 11th, the main English Wikipedia article about the pandemic had nearly 1.1 million views, an increase of nearly 30% from the day before the WHO’s announcement (on March 10th, it had just over 809,000 views).” This is similar to the peaks in Wikipedia attention observed when official announcements took place during the Zika virus epidemic.

In addition, initial data from Tizzoni’s research group shows that the lockdown in Italy has resulted in a 50% or more decrease in movement between provinces. Similarly, Negrin notes that since the national lockdown in Italy, “total pageviews from Italy to all Wikimedia projects increased by nearly 30% over where they were at the same time last year.”

With increased public awareness during epidemics, tackling misinformation is critical. This remains important at Wikipedia.

“When it comes to documenting current events on Wikipedia, volunteers take even greater care to get the facts right,” stated Negrin, and pointed out that there is a page dedicated to misinformation during this pandemic, which has received over half a million views….(More)”.

Why no one is reading your coronavirus emails

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Opinion by Todd Rogers: “…As a behavioral scientist, I study how people make decisions and process information, and I develop communications to change behavior for the better. And if there’s one lesson all the coronavirus email writers should take, it’s this: Messages should be as easy to understand as possible. This is difficult in normal times — and is no doubt much more so with facts on the ground changing as rapidly as they are….

As an illustration of how potent simplifying messaging can be, Carly Robinson at Harvard, Jessica Lasky-Fink of the University of California, Berkeley, Hedy Chang of Attendance Works and I conducted an experiment with a large school district, in which we rewrote a state-required notification about attendance.All schools in California are required to send a truancy notification to families after a student is late or absent three times. The state legislature offered recommended language for the notice that was written at a college-reading level and contained 342 words in seven-point font. We rewrote the letter at a 5th grade reading level, in 14-point font and with half as many words. We then randomly assigned 131,312 families to either receive the state-recommended language or a version of our simplified letter.The best version of our simplified letters was an estimated 40% more effective at reducing absences during the subsequent 30 days than the state-recommended language. Writing with an understanding of how humans work turns out to be more effective than writing with the sole goal of complying with the delivery of mandatory written information.So, what can be done to make coronavirus messages, so critical to the functioning of our country right now, easier to understand — and more likely to be read?

  • Write in the most accessible way possible. Use the Flesch-Kincaid readability test (built into Microsoft Word and Google Docs) to test the reading-level complexity of your writing.
  • Use as few words as possible. Shorter messages are more likely to be read (see the long email in your inbox from three months ago that you still have not read).
  • Write in a larger font. This makes long messages look ridiculous and makes it easier to read for recipients with eyesight issues. It also reduces the chance of the accidental — but way too common — occurrence of emails appearing in inboxes with absurdly small font.
  • Eliminate gratuitous borders and images. These can often distract from the message you are trying to send.
  • Use a clear structure. People skim, so help them. As opposed to a multi-paragraph email written in normal prose, consider categorizing information under headings like, “What we want you to know” (or just “KNOW”) and “what we would like you to do” (or, concisely, “DO”). Consider putting content within each category in bullet points….(More)”

Ex ante knowledge for infectious disease outbreaks : Introducing the organizational network governance approach

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Chapter by Jörg Raab et al: “The core question addressed is to what extent ex ante knowledge can be made available from a network governance perspective to deal with a crisis such as an infectious disease outbreak. Such outbreaks are often characterized by a lack of information and knowledge, changing and unforeseen conditions as well as a myriad of organizations becoming involved on the one hand but also organizations which do not become adequately involved. We introduce the organizational network governance approach as an exploratory approach to produce useful ex ante information for limiting the transmission of a virus and its impact. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach introducing two fictitious but realistic outbreak scenarios: the West Nile Virus (WNV), which is transmitted via mosquitos and the outbreak of a New Asian Coronavirus (NAC) which is characterized by human to human transmission. Both viruses can lead to serious illnesses or even death as well as large health care and economic costs.

Our organizational network governance approach turns out to be effective in generating information to produce recommendations for strengthening the organizational context in order to limit the transmission of a virus and its impact. We also suggest how the organizational network governance approach could be further developed…(More)”.

Personal privacy matters during a pandemic — but less than it might at other times

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Nicole Wetsman at the Verge: “…The balance between protecting individual privacy and collecting information that is critical to the public good changes over the course of a disease’s spread. The amount of data public health officials need to collect and disclose changes as well. Right now, the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating, and there is still a lot doctors and scientists don’t know about the disease. Collecting detailed health information is, therefore, more useful and important. That could change as the outbreak progresses, Lee says.

For example, as the virus starts to circulate in the community, it might not be as important to know exactly where a sick person has been. If the virus is everywhere already, that information won’t have as much additional benefit to the community. “It depends a lot on the maturity of an epidemic,” she says.

Digital tracking information is ubiquitous today, and that can make data collection easier. In Singapore, where there’s extensive surveillance, publicly available data details where people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 are and have been. The Iranian government built an app for people to check their symptoms that also included a geo-tracking feature. When deciding to use those types of tools, Lee says, the same public health principles should still apply.

“Should a public health official know where a person has gone, should that be public information — it’s not different. It’s a lot easier to do that now, but it doesn’t make it any more right or less right,” she says. “Tracking where people go and who they interact with is something public health officials have been doing for centuries. It’s just easier with digital information.”

In addition, just because personal information about a person and their health is important to a public health official, it doesn’t mean that information is important for the general public. It’s why, despite questioning from reporters, public health officials only gave out a limited amount of information on the people who had the first few cases of COVID-19 in the US…

Health officials worry about the stigmatization of individuals or communities affected by diseases, which is why they aim to disclose only necessary information to the public. Anti-Asian racism in the US and other countries around the world spiked with the outbreak because the novel coronavirus originated in China. People who were on cruise ships with positive cases reported fielding angry phone calls from strangers when they returned home, and residents of New Rochelle, New York, which is the first containment zone in the US, said that they’re worried about their hometown being forever associated with the virus.

“This kind of group-level harm is concerning,” Lee says. “That’s why we worry about group identity privacy, as well. I’m nervous and sad to see that starting to poke its head out.”

People can’t expect the same level of personal health privacy during public health emergencies involving infectious diseases as they can in other elements of their health. But the actions public health officials can take, like collecting information, aren’t designed to limit privacy, Fairchild says. “It’s to protect the broader population. The principle we embrace is the principle of reciprocity. We recognize that our liberty is limited, but we are doing that for others.”…(More)”.