research paper / thesis / dissertation

From #Resistance to #Reimagining governance

Curated on December 14, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Stefaan G. Verhulst in Open Democracy: “…There is no doubt that #Resistance (and its associated movements) holds genuine transformative potential. But for the change it brings to be meaningful (and positive), we need to ask the question: What kind of government do we really want?

Working to maintain the status quo or simply returning to, for instance, a pre-Trump reality cannot provide for the change we need to counter the decline in trust, the rise of populism and the complex social, economic and cultural problems we face. We need a clear articulation of alternatives. Without such an articulation, there is a danger of a certain hollowness and dispersion of energies. The call for #Resistance requires a more concrete –and ultimately more productive – program that is concerned not just with rejecting or tearing down, but with building up new institutions and governance processes. What’s needed, in short, is not simply #Resistance.

Below, I suggest six shifts that can help us reimagine governance for the twenty-first century. Several of these shifts are enabled by recent technological changes (e.g., the advent of big data, blockchain and collective intelligence) as well as other emerging methods such as design thinking, behavioral economics, and agile development.

Some of the shifts I suggest have been experimented with, but they have often been developed in an ad hoc manner without a full understanding of how they could make a more systemic impact. Part of the purpose of this paper is to begin the process of a more systematic enquiry; the following amounts to a preliminary outline or blueprint for reimagined governance for the twenty-first century.

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Shift 1: from gatekeeper to platform…
Shift 2: from inward to user-and-problem orientation…
Shift 3: from closed to open…
Shift 4: from deliberation to collaboration and co-creation…
Shift 5: from ideology to evidence-based…
Shift 6: from centralized to distributed… (More)

Factors Influencing Decisions about Crowdsourcing in the Public Sector: A Literature Review

Curated on December 12, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Regina Lenart‑Gansiniec: “Crowdsourcing is a relatively new notion, nonetheless raising more and more interest with researchers. In short, it means selection of functions which until present have been performed by employees and transferring them, in the form of an open on‑line call, to an undefined virtual community. In economic practice it has become amegatrend, which drives innovations, collaboration in the field of scientific research, business, or society. It is reached by more and more organisations, for instance considering its potential business value (Rouse 2010; Whitla 2009).

The first paper dedicated to crowdsourcing appeared relatively recently, in 2006 thanks to J. Howe’s article entitled:“The Rise of Crowdsourcing”. Although crowdsourcing is more and more the subject of scientific research, one may note in the literature many ambiguities, which result from proliferation of various research approaches and perspectives. Therefore, this may lead to many misunderstandings (Hopkins, 2011). This especially concerns the key aspects and factors, which have an impact on making decisions about crowdsourcing by organisations, particularly the public ones.

The aim of this article is identification of the factors that influence making decisions about implementing crowdsourcing by public organisations in their activity, in particular municipal offices in Poland. The article is of a theoretical and review nature. Searching for the answer to this question, a literature review was conducted and an analysis of crowdsourcing initiatives used by self‑government units in Poland was made….(More)”.

Crowdsourcing Accurately and Robustly Predicts Supreme Court Decisions

Curated on December 12, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Katz, Daniel Martin and Bommarito, Michael James and Blackman, Josh: “Scholars have increasingly investigated “crowdsourcing” as an alternative to expert-based judgment or purely data-driven approaches to predicting the future. Under certain conditions, scholars have found that crowd-sourcing can outperform these other approaches. However, despite interest in the topic and a series of successful use cases, relatively few studies have applied empirical model thinking to evaluate the accuracy and robustness of crowdsourcing in real-world contexts.

In this paper, we offer three novel contributions. First, we explore a dataset of over 600,000 predictions from over 7,000 participants in a multi-year tournament to predict the decisions of the Supreme Court of the United States. Second, we develop a comprehensive crowd construction framework that allows for the formal description and application of crowdsourcing to real-world data. Third, we apply this framework to our data to construct more than 275,000 crowd models. We find that in out-of-sample historical simulations, crowdsourcing robustly outperforms the commonly-accepted null model, yielding the highest-known performance for this context at 80.8% case level accuracy. To our knowledge, this dataset and analysis represent one of the largest explorations of recurring human prediction to date, and our results provide additional empirical support for the use of crowdsourcing as a prediction method….(More)”.

Big data in social and psychological science: theoretical and methodological issues

Curated on December 11, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Lin Qiu, Sarah Hian May Chan and David Chan in the Journal of Computational Social Science: “Big data presents unprecedented opportunities to understand human behavior on a large scale. It has been increasingly used in social and psychological research to reveal individual differences and group dynamics. There are a few theoretical and methodological challenges in big data research that require attention. In this paper, we highlight four issues, namely data-driven versus theory-driven approaches, measurement validity, multi-level longitudinal analysis, and data integration. They represent common problems that social scientists often face in using big data. We present examples of these problems and propose possible solutions….(More)”.

Analyzing the Role of the Internet-of-Things in Business and Technologically-Smart Cities

Curated on December 11, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by A. Shinn, K. Nakatani, and W. Rodriguez in the International Journal of Internet of Things: “This research analyzes and theorizes on the role that the Internet-of-Things will play in the expansion of business and technologically-smart cities. This study examines: a) the underlying technology, referred to as the Internet of Things that forms the foundation for smart cities; b) what businesses and government must do to successfully transition to a technologically-smart city; and c) how the proliferation of the Internet of Things through the emerging cities will affect local citizens. As machine-to-machine communication becomes increasingly common, new use cases are continually created, as is the case with the use of the Internet of Things in technologically-smart cities. Technology businesses are keeping a close pulse on end-users’ needs in order to identify and create technologies and systems to cater to new use cases. A number of the international smart city-specific use cases will be discussed in this paper along with the technology that aligns to those use cases….(More)”.

Blockchain: Unpacking the disruptive potential of blockchain technology for human development.

Curated on December 7, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

IDRC white paper: “In the scramble to harness new technologies to propel innovation around the world, artificial intelligence, robotics, machine learning, and blockchain technologies are being explored and deployed in a wide variety of contexts globally.

Although blockchain is one of the most hyped of these new technologies, it is also perhaps the least understood. Blockchain is the distributed ledger — a database that is shared across multiple sites or institutions to furnish a secure and transparent record of events occurring during the provision of a service or contract — that supports cryptocurrencies (digital assets designed to work as mediums of exchange).

Blockchain is now underpinning applications such as land registries and identity services, but as its popularity grows, its relevance in addressing socio-economic gaps and supporting development targets like the globally-recognized UN Sustainable Development Goals is critical to unpack. Moreover, for countries in the global South that want to be more than just end users or consumers, the complex infrastructure requirements and operating costs of blockchain could prove challenging. For the purposes of real development, we need to not only understand how blockchain is workable, but also who is able to harness it to foster social inclusion and promote democratic governance.

This white paper explores the potential of blockchain technology to support human development. It provides a non-technical overview, illustrates a range of applications, and offers a series of conclusions and recommendations for additional research and potential development programming….(More)”.

Decoding Data Use: What evidence do world leaders want to achieve their goals?

Curated on December 7, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Samantha Custer, Takaaki Masaki, and Carolyn Iwicki: “Information is “never the hero”, but it plays a supporting role in how leaders allocate scarce resources and accelerate development in their communities. Even in low- and middle-income countries, decision-makers have ample choices in sourcing evidence from a growing field of domestic and international data providers. However, more information is not necessarily better if it misses the mark for what leaders need to monitor their country’s progress. Claims that information is the “world’s most valuable resource” and calls for a “data revolution” will ring hollow if we can’t decode what leaders actually use — and why.

In a new report, Decoding Data Use: How leaders source data and use it to accelerate development, AidData reveals what 3500 leaders from 126 countries have to say about the types of data or analysis they use, from what sources, and for which purposes in the context of their work. We analyze responses to AidData’s 2017 Listening to Leaders (LTL) Survey to offer insights to help funders, producers, advocates, and infomediaries of development data understand how to position themselves for greater impact….(more)”.

Democracy in the digital age: digital agora or dystopia

Curated on December 5, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Peter Parycek, Bettina Rinnerbauer, and Judith Schossböck in the International Journal of Electronic Governance: “Information and communication technologies (ICTs) affect democracy and the rule of law. Digitalisation has been perceived as a stimulus towards a more participative society or as support to decision making, but not without criticism. Authors draw on a legal review, case studies and quantitative survey data about citizens’ view on transparency and participation in the German-speaking region to summarise selected discourses of democratisation via ICTs and the dominant critique. The paper concludes with an outlook on contemporary questions of digital democracy between the dialectic of protecting citizens’ rights and citizen control. It is proposed that prospective e-participation projects will concentrate on processes of innovation and creativity as opposed to participation rates. Future investigations should evaluate the contexts in which a more data-driven, automated form of decision making could be supported and collect indicators for where to draw the line between the protection and control of citizens, including research on specific tools…(More).

Stewardship in the “Age of Algorithms”

Curated on December 4, 2017August 3, 2018 by Stefaan Verhulst

Clifford Lynch at First Monday: “This paper explores pragmatic approaches that might be employed to document the behavior of large, complex socio-technical systems (often today shorthanded as “algorithms”) that centrally involve some mixture of personalization, opaque rules, and machine learning components. Thinking rooted in traditional archival methodology — focusing on the preservation of physical and digital objects, and perhaps the accompanying preservation of their environments to permit subsequent interpretation or performance of the objects — has been a total failure for many reasons, and we must address this problem.

The approaches presented here are clearly imperfect, unproven, labor-intensive, and sensitive to the often hidden factors that the target systems use for decision-making (including personalization of results, where relevant); but they are a place to begin, and their limitations are at least outlined.

Numerous research questions must be explored before we can fully understand the strengths and limitations of what is proposed here. But it represents a way forward. This is essentially the first paper I am aware of which tries to effectively make progress on the stewardship challenges facing our society in the so-called “Age of Algorithms;” the paper concludes with some discussion of the failure to address these challenges to date, and the implications for the roles of archivists as opposed to other players in the broader enterprise of stewardship — that is, the capture of a record of the present and the transmission of this record, and the records bequeathed by the past, into the future. It may well be that we see the emergence of a new group of creators of documentation, perhaps predominantly social scientists and humanists, taking the front lines in dealing with the “Age of Algorithms,” with their materials then destined for our memory organizations to be cared for into the future…(More)”.