Paper by Max Wolf, Jens Krause, Patricia A. Carney, Andy Bogart, Ralf H. Kurvers indicating that “The Collective Outperforms the Best Radiologist”: “While collective intelligence (CI) is a powerful approach to increase decision accuracy, few attempts have been made to unlock its potential in medical decision-making. Here we investigated the performance of three well-known collective intelligence rules (“majority”, “quorum”, and “weighted quorum”) when applied to mammography screening. For any particular mammogram, these rules aggregate the independent assessments of multiple radiologists into a single decision (recall the patient for additional workup or not). We found that, compared to single radiologists, any of these CI-rules both increases true positives (i.e., recalls of patients with cancer) and decreases false positives (i.e., recalls of patients without cancer), thereby overcoming one of the fundamental limitations to decision accuracy that individual radiologists face. Importantly, we find that all CI-rules systematically outperform even the best-performing individual radiologist in the respective group. Our findings demonstrate that CI can be employed to improve mammography screening; similarly, CI may have the potential to improve medical decision-making in a much wider range of contexts, including many areas of diagnostic imaging and, more generally, diagnostic decisions that are based on the subjective interpretation of evidence….(More)”
Algorithm predicts and prevents train delays two hours in advance
Springwise: “Transport apps such as Ototo make it easier than ever for passengers to stay informed about problems with public transport, but real-time information can only help so much — by the time users find out about a delayed service, it is often too late to take an alternative route. Now, Stockholmstag — the company that runs Sweden’s trains — have found a solution in the form of an algorithm called ‘The Commuter Prognosis’, which can predict network delays up to two hours in advance, giving train operators time to issue extra services or provide travelers with adequate warning.
The system was created by mathematician Wilhelm Landerholm. It uses historical data to predict how a small delay, even as little as two minutes, will affect the running of the rest of the network. Often the initial late train causes a ripple effect, with subsequent services being delayed to accommodate new platform arrival time, which then affect subsequent trains, and so on. But soon, using ‘The Commuter Prognosis’, Stockholmstag train operators will be able to make the necessary adjustments to prevent this. In addition, the information will be relayed to commuters, enabling them to take a different train and therefore reducing overcrowding. The prediction tool is expected to be put into use in Sweden by the end of the year….(More)”
Drones and Aerial Observation: New Technologies for Property Rights, Human Rights, and Global Development
New America Foundation: “Clear and secure rights to property—land, natural resources, and other goods and assets—are crucial to human prosperity. Most people lack such rights. That lack is in part a consequence of political and social breakdowns, and in part driven by informational deficits. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones, are able to gather large amounts of information cheaply and efficiently by virtue of their aerial perspective, as can unpowered platforms like kites and balloons.
That information, in the form of images, maps, and other data, can be used by communities to improve the quality and character of their property rights. These same tools are also useful in other, related aspects of global development. Drone surveillance can help conservationists protect endangered wildlife and aid scientists in understanding the changing climate; drone imagery can be used by advocates and analysts to document and deter human rights violations; UAVs can be used by first responders to search for lost people or to evaluate the extent of damage after natural disasters like earthquakes or hurricanes.
This primer discusses the capabilities and limitations of unmanned aerial vehicles in advancing property rights, human rights and development more broadly. It contains both nuts-and-bolts advice to drone operators and policy guidance.
Click below to download the text of this primer, or on the corresponding link for a particular chapter…. (More)
The Data Revolution for Sustainable Development
Jeffrey D. Sachs at Project Syndicate: “There is growing recognition that the success of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which will be adopted on September 25 at a special United Nations summit, will depend on the ability of governments, businesses, and civil society to harness data for decision-making…
One way to improve data collection and use for sustainable development is to create an active link between the provision of services and the collection and processing of data for decision-making. Take health-care services. Every day, in remote villages of developing countries, community health workers help patients fight diseases (such as malaria), get to clinics for checkups, receive vital immunizations, obtain diagnoses (through telemedicine), and access emergency aid for their infants and young children (such as for chronic under-nutrition). But the information from such visits is usually not collected, and even if it is put on paper, it is never used again.
We now have a much smarter way to proceed. Community health workers are increasingly supported by smart-phone applications, which they can use to log patient information at each visit. That information can go directly onto public-health dashboards, which health managers can use to spot disease outbreaks, failures in supply chains, or the need to bolster technical staff. Such systems can provide a real-time log of vital events, including births and deaths, and even use so-called verbal autopsies to help identify causes of death. And, as part of electronic medical records, the information can be used at future visits to the doctor or to remind patients of the need for follow-up visits or medical interventions….
Fortunately, the information and communications technology revolution and the spread of broadband coverage nearly everywhere can quickly make such time lags a thing of the past. As indicated in the report A World that Counts: Mobilizing the Data Revolution for Sustainable Development, we must modernize the practices used by statistical offices and other public agencies, while tapping into new sources of data in a thoughtful and creative way that complements traditional approaches.
Through more effective use of smart data – collected during service delivery, economic transactions, and remote sensing – the fight against extreme poverty will be bolstered; the global energy system will be made much more efficient and less polluting; and vital services such as health and education will be made far more effective and accessible.
With this breakthrough in sight, several governments, including that of the United States, as well as businesses and other partners, have announced plans to launch a new “Global Partnership for Sustainable Development Data” at the UN this month. The new partnership aims to strengthen data collection and monitoring efforts by raising more funds, encouraging knowledge-sharing, addressing key barriers to access and use of data, and identifying new big-data strategies to upgrade the world’s statistical systems.
The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network will support the new Global Partnership by creating a new Thematic Network on Data for Sustainable Development, which will bring together leading data scientists, thinkers, and academics from across multiple sectors and disciplines to form a center of data excellence….(More)”
Can Yelp Help Government Win Back the Public’s Trust?
Tod Newcombe at Governing: “Look out, DMV, IRS and TSA. Yelp, the popular review website that’s best known for its rants or cheers regarding restaurants and retailers, is about to make it easier to review and rank government services.
Last month, Yelp and the General Services Administration (GSA), which manages the basic functions of the federal government, announced that government workers will soon be able to read and respond to their agencies’ Yelp reviews — and, hopefully, incorporate the feedback into service improvements.
At first glance, the news might not seem so special. There already are Yelp pages for government agencies like Departments of Motor Vehicles, which have been particularly popular. San Francisco’s DMV office, for example, has received more than 450 reviews and has a three-star rating. But federal agencies and workers haven’t been allowed to respond to the reviewers nor could they collect data from the pages because Yelp hadn’t been approved by the GSA. The agreement changes that situation, also making it possible for agencies to set up new Yelp pages….
Yelp has been posting online reviews about restaurants, bars, nail salons and other retailers since 2004. Despite its reputation as a place to vent about bad service, more than two-thirds of the 82 million reviews posted since Yelp started have been positive with most rated at either four or five stars, according to the company’s website. And when businesses boost their Yelp rating by one star, revenues have increased by as much as 9 percent, according to a 2011 study by Harvard Business School Professor Michael Luca.
Now the public sector is about to start paying more attention to those rankings. More importantly, they will find out if engaging the public in a timely fashion changes their perception of government.
While all levels of government have become active with social media, direct interaction between an agency and citizens is still the exception rather than the rule. Agencies typically use Facebook and Twitter to inform followers about services or to provide information updates, not as a feedback mechanism. That’s why having a more direct connection between the comments on a Yelp page and a government agency represents a shift in engagement….(More)”
Crowdsourcing a solution works best if some don’t help
Sarah Scoles at the New Scientist: “There are those who edit Wikipedia entries for accuracy – and those who use the online encyclopaedia daily without ever contributing. A new mathematical model says that’s probably as it should be: crowdsourcing a problem works best when a certain subset of the population chooses not to participate.
“In most social undertakings, there is a group that actually joins forces and works,” says Zoran Levnajic at the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia. “And there is a group of free-riders that typically benefits from work being done, without contributing much.”
Levnajic and his colleagues simulated this scenario. Digital people in a virtual population each had a randomly assigned tendency to collaborate on a problem or “freeload” – working alone and not sharing their findings. The team ran simulations to see whether there was an optimum crowdsource size for problem-solving.
It turned out there was – and surprisingly, the most effective crowd was not the largest possible. In fact, the simulated society was at its problem-solving best when just half the population worked together.
Smaller crowds contained too few willing collaborators with contrasting but complementary perspectives to effectively solve a problem. But if the researchers ran simulations with larger crowds, the freeloaders it contained naturally “defected” to working alone – knowing that they could benefit from any solutions the crowd reached, while also potentially reaping huge benefits if they could solve the problem without sharing the result (arxiv.org/abs/1506.09155)….(More)”
The era of “Scientific Urban Management” is approaching
Francesco Ferrero: “As members of the Smart City Strategic Program at Istituto Superiore Mario Boella, we strongly believe in the concept of Scientific Urban Management. This concept means that through new ICT trends such as the massive diffusion of sensors, wireless broadband and tools for data collection and analysis, the administration of urban spaces can get closer to being an exact science, i.e. urban decision-makers can exploit these technologies for practicing evidence based decision making. We are spending quite some efforts in doing research on Decision Support Systems integrating different Modelling & Simulation (M&S) techniques, to better predict and measure the impact of alternative Smart City initiatives on the path towards the social, economic and environmental sustainability target.
We believe that these tools will allow urban decision makers, solution providers and investment managers to predict, on the basis of a scientific approach, what initiatives will better contribute to implement the local Smart City strategies, and to satisfy the real needs of the citizens, thus reducing the risks associated with the deployment of large-scale innovations in the urban context.
Following this research roadmap, we have reached a paramount result on the theme of urban mobility simulation, by means of open-source software and open-data. Our work, done in collaboration with the CNR-IEIIT, University of Bologna and EURECOM has been recently published on IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology.
Simulation is an important technique to analyse the complex urban mobility system and to develop tools for supporting decision-making on top of it. However the effectiveness of this approach relies on the truthfulness of the mobility traces used to feed the traffic simulators. Furthermore, there is a lack of reference publicly available mobility traces. The main reasons for this lack are that the tools to generate realistic road traffic are complex to configure and operate, and real-world input data to be fed to such tools is hard to retrieve….(More)”
Using Big Data to Understand the Human Condition: The Kavli HUMAN Project
Azmak Okan et al in the Journal “Big Data”: “Until now, most large-scale studies of humans have either focused on very specific domains of inquiry or have relied on between-subjects approaches. While these previous studies have been invaluable for revealing important biological factors in cardiac health or social factors in retirement choices, no single repository contains anything like a complete record of the health, education, genetics, environmental, and lifestyle profiles of a large group of individuals at the within-subject level. This seems critical today because emerging evidence about the dynamic interplay between biology, behavior, and the environment point to a pressing need for just the kind of large-scale, long-term synoptic dataset that does not yet exist at the within-subject level. At the same time that the need for such a dataset is becoming clear, there is also growing evidence that just such a synoptic dataset may now be obtainable—at least at moderate scale—using contemporary big data approaches. To this end, we introduce the Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP), an effort to aggregate data from 2,500 New York City households in all five boroughs (roughly 10,000 individuals) whose biology and behavior will be measured using an unprecedented array of modalities over 20 years. It will also richly measure environmental conditions and events that KHP members experience using a geographic information system database of unparalleled scale, currently under construction in New York. In this manner, KHP will offer both synoptic and granular views of how human health and behavior coevolve over the life cycle and why they evolve differently for different people. In turn, we argue that this will allow for new discovery-based scientific approaches, rooted in big data analytics, to improving the health and quality of human life, particularly in urban contexts….(More)”
TurboVote
“TurboVote is a software platform and an implementation program developed by Democracy Works, a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization that works to simplify the voting process.
The TurboVote tool is an online service that helps students vote in every election — local, state, and national — by helping them register where they want to vote, and by keeping them engaged with the elections in their local communities.
What does TurboVote give students?
- helps them register to vote
- helps them vote by sending election reminders via text and via email – that way they can stay in touch with local elections even from away
- helps them vote by mail via absentee ballot request forms
What benefits are there for administrators, faculty, and other implementers?
TurboVote makes it possible for colleges and universities to conduct voter engagement efforts efficiently. Students have an array of personalized voting needs, from registration to ballot request requirements to deadlines – and it’s logistically prohibitive for an institution to meet these needs for every student. With TurboVote you can promote and monitor student registration and engagement by encouraging students to complete a short online process. ….(More)”
Open data is not just for startups
Mike Altendorf at CIO: “…Surely open data is just for start-ups, market research companies and people that want to save the world? Well there are two reasons why I wanted to dedicate a bit of time to the subject of open data. First, one of the major barriers to internal innovation that I hear about all the time is the inability to use internal data to inform that innovation. This is usually because data is deemed too sensitive, too complex, too siloed or too difficult to make usable. Leaving aside the issues that any of those problems are going to cause for the organisation more generally, it is easy to see how this can create a problem. So why not use someone else’s data?
The point of creating internal labs and innovation centres is to explore the art of the possible. I quite agree that insight from your own data is a good place to start but it isn’t the only place. You could also argue that by using your own data you are restricting your thinking because you are only looking at information that already relates to your business. If the point of a lab is to explore ideas for supporting the business then you may be better off looking outwards at what is happening in the world around you rather than inwards into the constrained world of the industry you already inhabit….
The fact is there is vast amounts of data sets that are freely available that can be made to work for you if you can just apply the creativity and technical smarts to them.
My second point is less about open data than about opening up data. Organisations collect information on their business operations, customers and suppliers all the time. The smart ones know how to use it to build competitive advantage but the really smart ones also know that there is significant extra value to be gained from sharing that data with the customer or supplier that it relates to. The customer or supplier can then use it to make informed decisions themselves. Some organisations have been doing this for a while. Customers of First Direct have been able to analyse their own spending patterns for years (although the data has been somewhat limited). The benefit to the customer is that they can make informed decisions based on actual data about their past behaviours and so adapt their spending habits accordingly (or put their head firmly in the sand and carry on as before in my case!). The benefit to the bank is that they are able to suggest ideas for how to improve a customer’s financial health alongside the data. Others have looked at how they can help customers by sharing (anonymised) information about what people with similar lifestyles/needs are doing/buying so customers can learn from each other. Trials have shown that customers welcomed the insight….(More)”