Why SayIt is (partly) a statement about the future of Open Data

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Tom Steinberg from MySociety: “This is where SayIt comes in, as an example of a relatively low-cost approach to making sure that the next generation of government IT systems do produce Open Data.
SayIt is a newly launched open source tool for publishing transcripts of trials, debates, interviews and so on. It publishes them online in a way that matches modern expectations about how stuff should work on the web – responsive, searchable and so on. It’s being built as a Poplus Component, which means it’s part of an international network of groups collaborating on shared technologies. Here’s JK Rowling being interviewed, published via SayIt.
But how does this little tool relate to the business of getting governments to release more Open Data? Well, SayIt isn’t just about publishing data, it’s about making it too – in a few months we’ll be sharing an authoring interface for making new transcripts from whatever source a user has access to.
We hope that having iterated and improved this authoring interface, SayIt can become the tool of choice for public sector transcribers, replacing whatever tool they use today (almost certainly Word). Then, if they use SayIt to make a transcript, instead of Word, then it will produce new, instantly-online Open Data every time they use it….
But we can’t expect the public sector to use a tool like SayIt to make new Open Data unless it is cheaper, better and less burdensome than whatever they’re using now. We can’t – quite simply – expect to sell government procurement officers a new product mainly on the virtues of Open Data.  This means the tough task of persuading government employees that there is a new tool that is head-and-shoulders better than Excel or Word for certain purposes: formidable, familiar products that are much better than their critics like to let on.
So in order for SayIt to replace the current tools used by any current transcriber, it’s going to have to be really, really good. And really trustworthy. And it’s going to have to be well marketed. And that’s why we’ve chosen to build SayIt as an international, open source collaboration – as a Poplus Component. Because we think that without the billions of dollars it takes to compete with Microsoft, our best hope is to develop very narrow tools that do 0.01% of what Word does, but which do that one thing really really well. And our key strategic advantage, other than the trust that comes with Open Source and Open Standards, is the energy of the global civic hacking and government IT reform sector. SayIt is far more likely to succeed if it has ideas and inputs from contributors from around the world.

Regardless of whether or not SayIt ever succeeds in penetrating inside governments, this post is about an idea that such an approach represents. The idea is that people can advance the Open Data agenda not just by lobbying, but also by building and popularising tools that mean that data is born open in the first place. I hope this post will encourage more people to work on such tools, either on your own, or via collaborations like Poplus.”

The Impact of the Social Sciences

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

New book:  The Impact of the Social Sciences: How Academics and Their Research Make a Difference by Simon Bastow, Jane Tinkler and Patrick Dunleavy. 
The three-year Impact of Social Sciences Project has culminated in a monograph published by SAGE. The book presents thorough analysis of how academic research in the social sciences achieves public policy impacts, contributes to economic prosperity, and informs public understanding of policy issues as well as economic and social changes. This book is essential reading for academics, researchers, university administrators, government and private funders, and anyone interested in the global conversation about joining up and increasing the societal value and impact of social science knowledge and research.
figure214Resources:

  • View the data visualisations that appear in the book here.
  • Browse our Living Bibliography with links to further resources.
  • Research Design and Methods Appendix [PDF]
  • “Assessing the Impacts of Academic Social Science Research: Modelling the economic impact on the UK economy of UK-based academic social science research” [PDF] A report prepared for the LSE Public Policy Group by Cambridge Econometrics.

Research Blogs:

Mapping the ‘Space of Flows’

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Paper by Reades J. and Smith D. A. in Regional Studies on the Geography of Global Business Telecommunications and Employment Specialization in the London Mega-City-Region: “Telecommunications has radically reshaped the way that firms organize industrial activity. And yet, because much of this technology – and the interactions that it enables – is invisible, the corporate ‘space of flows’ remains poorly mapped. This article combines detailed employment and telecoms usage data for the South-east of England to build a sector-by-sector profile of globalization at the mega-city-region scale. The intersection of these two datasets allows a new empirical perspective on industrial geography and regional structure to be developed.”

New Open Data Tool Helps Countries Compare Progress on Education

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

World Bank Group: “The World Bank Group today launched a new open data tool that provides in-depth, comparative, and easily accessible data on education policies around the world. The Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) web tool helps countries collect and analyze information on their education policies, benchmark themselves against other countries, and prioritize areas for reform, with the goal of ensuring that all children and youth go to school and learn….
To date, the Bank Group, through SABER, has analyzed more than 100 countries to guide more effective reforms and investments in education at all levels, from pre-primary to tertiary education and workforce development.
Through SABER, the Bank Group aims to improve education quality by supplying policymakers, civil society, school administrators, teachers, parents, and students with more, and more meaningful, data about key education policy areas, including early childhood development, student assessment, teachers, school autonomy and accountability, and workforce development, among others.
SABER helps countries improve their education systems in three ways:

  1. Providing new data on policies and institutions. SABER collects comparable country data on education policies and institutions that are publicly available at: http://worldbank.org/education/saber, allowing governments, researchers, and other stakeholders to measure and monitor progress.
  2. Benchmarking education policies and institutions. Each policy area is rated on a four-point scale, from “Latent” to “Emerging” to “Established” and “Advanced.” These ratings highlight a country’s areas of strength and weakness while promoting cross-country learning.
  3. Highlighting key policy choices. SABER data collection and analysis produce an objective snapshot of how well a country’s education system is performing in relation to global good practice. This helps highlight the most important policy choices to spur learning.”

How Internet surveillance predicts disease outbreak before WHO

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Kurzweil News: “Have you ever Googled for an online diagnosis before visiting a doctor? If so, you may have helped provide early warning of an infectious disease epidemic.
In a new study published in Lancet Infectious Diseases, Internet-based surveillance has been found to detect infectious diseases such as Dengue Fever and Influenza up to two weeks earlier than traditional surveillance methods, according to Queensland University of Technology (QUT) research fellow and senior author of the paper Wenbiao Hu.
Hu, based at the Institute for Health and Biomedical Innovation, said there was often a lag time of two weeks before traditional surveillance methods could detect an emerging infectious disease.
“This is because traditional surveillance relies on the patient recognizing the symptoms and seeking treatment before diagnosis, along with the time taken for health professionals to alert authorities through their health networks. In contrast, digital surveillance can provide real-time detection of epidemics.”
Hu said the study used search engine algorithms such as Google Trends and Google Insights. It found that detecting the 2005–06 avian influenza outbreak “Bird Flu” would have been possible between one and two weeks earlier than official surveillance reports.
“In another example, a digital data collection network was found to be able to detect the SARS outbreak more than two months before the first publications by the World Health Organization (WHO),” Hu said.
According to this week’s CDC FluView report published Jan. 17, 2014, influenza activity in the United States remains high overall, with 3,745 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations reported since October 1, 2013 (credit: CDC)
“Early detection means early warning and that can help reduce or contain an epidemic, as well alert public health authorities to ensure risk management strategies such as the provision of adequate medication are implemented.”
Hu said the study found that social media including Twitter and Facebook and microblogs could also be effective in detecting disease outbreaks. “The next step would be to combine the approaches currently available such as social media, aggregator websites, and search engines, along with other factors such as climate and temperature, and develop a real-time infectious disease predictor.”
“The international nature of emerging infectious diseases combined with the globalization of travel and trade, have increased the interconnectedness of all countries and that means detecting, monitoring and controlling these diseases is a global concern.”
The other authors of the paper were Gabriel Milinovich (first author), Gail Williams and Archie Clements from the University of Queensland School of Population, Health and State.
Supramap 
Another powerful tool is Supramap, a web application that synthesizes large, diverse datasets so that researchers can better understand the spread of infectious diseases across hosts and geography by integrating genetic, evolutionary, geospatial, and temporal data. It is now open-source — create your own maps here.
Associate Professor Daniel Janies, Ph.D., an expert in computational genomics at the Wexner Medical Center at The Ohio State University (OSU), worked with software engineers at the Ohio Supercomputer Center (OSC) to allow researchers and public safety officials to develop other front-end applications that draw on the logic and computing resources of Supramap.
It was originally developed in 2007 to track the spread and evolution of pandemic (H1N1) and avian influenza (H5N1).
“Using SUPRAMAP, we initially developed maps that illustrated the spread of drug-resistant influenza and host shifts in H1N1 and H5N1 influenza and in coronaviruses, such as SARS,” said Janies. “SUPRAMAP allows the user to track strains carrying key mutations in a geospatial browser such as Google Earth. Our software allows public health scientists to update and view maps on the evolution and spread of pathogens.”
Grant funding through the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Office supports this Innovation Group on Global Infectious Disease Research project. Support for the computational requirements of the project comes from  the American Museum of Natural History (AMNH) and OSC. Ohio State’s Wexner Medical Center, Department of Biomedical Informatics and offices of Academic Affairs and Research provide additional support.”
See also

Innovation by Competition: How Challenges and Competition Get the Most Out of the Crowd

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Innocentive: “Crowdsourcing has become the 21st century’s alternative to problem solving in place of traditional employee-based strategies. It has become the modern solution to provide for needed services, content, and ideas. Crowdsourced ideas are paving the way for today’s organizations to tackle innovation challenges that confront them in today’s competitive global marketplace. To put it all in perspective, crowds used to be thought of as angry mobs. Today, crowds are more like friendly and helpful contributors. What an interesting juxtaposition, eh?
Case studies proving the effectiveness of crowdsourcing to conquer innovation challenge, particularly in the fields of science and engineering abound. Despite this fact that success stories involving crowdsourcing are plentiful, very few firms are really putting its full potential to use. Advances in ALS and AIDS research have both made huge advances thanks to crowdsourcing, just to name a couple.
Biologists at the University of Washington were able to map the structure of an AIDS related virus thanks to the collaboration involved with crowdsourcing. How did they do this?  With the help of gamers playing a game designed to help get the information the University of Washington needed. It was a solution that remained unattainable for over a decade until enough top notch scientific minds were expertly probed from around the world with effective crowdsourcing techniques.
Dr. Seward Rutkove discovered an ALS biomarker to accurately measure the progression of the disease in patients through the crowdsourcing tactics utilized in a prize contest by an organization named Prize4Life, who utilized our Challenge Driven Innovation approach to engage the crowd.
The truth is, the concept of crowdsourcing to innovate has been around for centuries. But, with the growing connectedness of the world due to sheer Internet access, the power and ability to effectively crowdsource has increased exponentially. It’s time for corporations to realize this, and stop relying on stale sources of innovation. ..”

Tech Policy Is Not A Religion

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Opinion Piece by Robert Atkinson: “”Digital libertarians” and “digital technocrats” want us to believe their way is the truth and the light. It’s not that black and white. Manichaeism, an ancient religion, took a dualistic view of the world. It described the struggle between a good, spiritual world of light, and an evil, material world of darkness. Listening to tech policy debates, especially in America, one would presume that Manichaeism is alive and well.
On one side (light or dark, depending on your view) are the folks who embrace free markets, bottom-up processes, multi-stakeholderism, open-source systems, and crowdsourced innovations. On the other are those who embrace government intervention, top-down processes, additional regulation, proprietary systems, and expert-based innovations.
For the first group, whom I’ll call the digital libertarians, government is the problem, not the solution. Tech enables freedom, and statist actions can only limit it.
According to this camp, tech is moving so fast that government can’t hope to keep up — the only workable governance system is a nimble one based on multi-stakeholder processes, such as ICANN and W3C. With Web 2.0, everyone can be a contributor, and it is through the proliferation of multiple and disparate voices that we discover the truth. And because of the ability of communities of coders to add their contributions, the only viable tech systems are based on open-source models.
For the second group, the digital technocrats, the problem is the anarchic, lawless, corporate-dominated nature of the digital world. Tech is so disruptive, including to long-established norms and laws, it needs to be limited and shaped, and only the strong hand of the state can do that. Because of the influence of tech on all aspects of society, any legitimate governance process must stem from democratic institutions — not from a select group of insiders — and that can only happen with government oversight such as through the UN’s International Telecommunication Union.
According to this camp, because there are so many uninformed voices on the Internet spreading urban myths like wildfire, we need carefully vetted experts, whether in media or other organizations, to sort through the mass of information and provide expert, unbiased analysis. And because IT systems are so critical to the safety and well-functioning of  society, we need companies to build and profit from them through a closed-source model.
Of course, just as religious Manichaeism leads to distorted practices of faith, tech Manichaeism leads to distorted policy practices and views. Take Internet governance. The process of ensuring Internet governance and evolution is complex and rapidly changing. A strong case can be made for the multi-stakeholder process as the driving force.
But this situation doesn’t mean, as digital libertarians would assert, that governments should stay out of the Internet altogether. Governments are not, as digital libertarian John Perry Barlow arrogantly asserts, “weary giants of flesh and steel.” Governments can and do play legitimate roles in many Internet policy issues, from establishing cybersecurity guidelines to setting online sales tax policy to combatting spam and digital piracy to setting rules governing unfair and deceptive online marketing practices.
This assertion doesn’t mean governments always get things right. They don’t. But as the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation writes in its recent response to Barlow’s manifesto, to deny people the right to regulate Internet activity through their government officials ignores the significant contribution the government can play in promoting the continued development of the Internet and digital economy.
At the same time, the digital technocrats must understand that the digital world is different from the analog one, and that old rules, regulations, and governing structures simply don’t apply. When ITU Secretary General Hamadoun Toure argues that “at the behest of all the world’s nations, the UN must lead this effort” to manage the global Internet, and that “for big commercial interests, it’s about maximizing the bottom line,” he’s ignoring the critical role that tech companies and other non-government stakeholders play in the Internet ecosystem.
Because digital technology is such a vastly complex system, digital libertarians claim that their “light” approach is superior to the “dark,” controlling, technocratic approach. In fact, this very complexity requires that we base Internet policy on pragmatism, not religion.
Conversely, because technology is so important to opportunity and the functioning of societies, digital technocrats assert that only governments can maximize these benefits. In fact, its importance requires us to respect its complexity and the role of private sector innovators in driving digital progress.
In short, the belief that one or the other of these approaches is sufficient in itself to maximize tech innovation is misleading at best and damaging at worst.”

Crowdsourcing forecasts on science and technology events and innovations

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Kurzweil News: “George Mason University launched today, Jan. 10, the largest and most advanced science and technology prediction market in the world: SciCast.
The federally funded research project aims to improve the accuracy of science and technology forecasts. George Mason research assistant professor Charles Twardy is the principal investigator of the project.
SciCast crowdsources forecasts on science and technology events and innovations from aerospace to zoology.
For example, will Amazon use drones for commercial package delivery by the end of 2017? Today, SciCast estimates the chance at slightly more than 50 percent. If you think that is too low, you can estimate a higher chance. SciCast will use your estimate to adjust the combined forecast.
Forecasters can update their forecasts at any time; in the above example, perhaps after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) releases its new guidelines for drones. The continually updated and reshaped information helps both the public and private sectors better monitor developments in a variety of industries. SciCast is a real-time indicator of what participants think is going to happen in the future.
“Combinatorial” prediction market better than simple average


How SciCast works (Credit: George Mason University)
The idea is that collective wisdom from diverse, informed opinions can provide more accurate predictions than individual forecasters, a notion borne out by other crowdsourcing projects. Simply taking an average is almost always better than going with the “best” expert. But in a two-year test on geopolitical questions, the SciCast method did 40 percent better than the simple average.
SciCast uses the first general “combinatorial” prediction market. In a prediction market, forecasters spend points to adjust the group forecast. Significant changes “cost” more — but “pay” more if they turn out to be right. So better forecasters gain more points and therefore more influence, improving the accuracy of the system.
In a combinatorial market like SciCast, forecasts can influence each other. For example, forecasters might have linked cherry production to honeybee populations. Then, if forecasters increase the estimated percentage of honeybee colonies lost this winter, SciCast automatically reduces the estimated 2014 cherry production. This connectivity among questions makes SciCast more sophisticated than other prediction markets.
SciCast topics include agriculture, biology and medicine, chemistry, computational sciences, energy, engineered technologies, global change, information systems, mathematics, physics, science and technology business, social sciences, space sciences and transportation….

Crowdsourcing forecasts on science and technology events and innovations

George Mason University’s just-launched SciCast is largest and most advanced science and technology prediction market in the world
January 10, 2014


Example of SciCast crowdsourced forecast (credit: George Mason University)
George Mason University launched today, Jan. 10, the largest and most advanced science and technology prediction market in the world: SciCast.
The federally funded research project aims to improve the accuracy of science and technology forecasts. George Mason research assistant professor Charles Twardy is the principal investigator of the project.
SciCast crowdsources forecasts on science and technology events and innovations from aerospace to zoology.
For example, will Amazon use drones for commercial package delivery by the end of 2017? Today, SciCast estimates the chance at slightly more than 50 percent. If you think that is too low, you can estimate a higher chance. SciCast will use your estimate to adjust the combined forecast.
Forecasters can update their forecasts at any time; in the above example, perhaps after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) releases its new guidelines for drones. The continually updated and reshaped information helps both the public and private sectors better monitor developments in a variety of industries. SciCast is a real-time indicator of what participants think is going to happen in the future.
“Combinatorial” prediction market better than simple average


How SciCast works (Credit: George Mason University)
The idea is that collective wisdom from diverse, informed opinions can provide more accurate predictions than individual forecasters, a notion borne out by other crowdsourcing projects. Simply taking an average is almost always better than going with the “best” expert. But in a two-year test on geopolitical questions, the SciCast method did 40 percent better than the simple average.
SciCast uses the first general “combinatorial” prediction market. In a prediction market, forecasters spend points to adjust the group forecast. Significant changes “cost” more — but “pay” more if they turn out to be right. So better forecasters gain more points and therefore more influence, improving the accuracy of the system.
In a combinatorial market like SciCast, forecasts can influence each other. For example, forecasters might have linked cherry production to honeybee populations. Then, if forecasters increase the estimated percentage of honeybee colonies lost this winter, SciCast automatically reduces the estimated 2014 cherry production. This connectivity among questions makes SciCast more sophisticated than other prediction markets.
SciCast topics include agriculture, biology and medicine, chemistry, computational sciences, energy, engineered technologies, global change, information systems, mathematics, physics, science and technology business, social sciences, space sciences and transportation.
Seeking futurists to improve forecasts, pose questions


(Credit: George Mason University)
“With so many science and technology questions, there are many niches,” says Twardy, a researcher in the Center of Excellence in Command, Control, Communications, Computing and Intelligence (C4I), based in Mason’s Volgenau School of Engineering.
“We seek scientists, statisticians, engineers, entrepreneurs, policymakers, technical traders, and futurists of all stripes to improve our forecasts, link questions together and pose new questions.”
Forecasters discuss the questions, and that discussion can lead to new, related questions. For example, someone asked,Will Amazon deliver its first package using an unmanned aerial vehicle by Dec. 31, 2017?
An early forecaster suggested that this technology is likely to first be used in a mid-sized town with fewer obstructions or local regulatory issues. Another replied that Amazon is more likely to use robots to deliver packages within a short radius of a conventional delivery vehicle. A third offered information about an FAA report related to the subject.
Any forecaster could then write a question about upcoming FAA rulings, and link that question to the Amazon drones question. Forecasters could then adjust the strength of the link.
“George Mason University has succeeded in launching the world’s largest forecasting tournament for science and technology,” says Jason Matheny, program manager of Forecasting Science and Technology at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, based in Washington, D.C. “SciCast can help the public and private sectors to better understand a range of scientific and technological trends.”
Collaborative but Competitive
More than 1,000 experts and enthusiasts from science and tech-related associations, universities and interest groups preregistered to participate in SciCast. The group is collaborative in spirit but also competitive. Participants are rewarded for accurate predictions by moving up on the site leaderboard, receiving more points to spend influencing subsequent prognostications. Participants can (and should) continually update their predictions as new information is presented.
SciCast has partnered with the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and multiple other science and technology professional societies.
Mason members of the SciCast project team include Twardy; Kathryn Laskey, associate director for the C4I and a professor in the Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research; associate professor of economics Robin Hanson; C4I research professor Tod Levitt; and C4I research assistant professors Anamaria Berea, Kenneth Olson and Wei Sun.
To register for SciCast, visit www.SciCast.org, or for more information, e-mail support@scicast.org. SciCast is open to anyone age 18 or older.”

New Book: Open Data Now

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

New book by Joel Gurin (The GovLab): “Open Data is the world’s greatest free resource–unprecedented access to thousands of databases–and it is one of the most revolutionary developments since the Information Age began. Combining two major trends–the exponential growth of digital data and the emerging culture of disclosure and transparency–Open Data gives you and your business full access to information that has never been available to the average person until now. Unlike most Big Data, Open Data is transparent, accessible, and reusable in ways that give it the power to transform business, government, and society.
Open Data Now is an essential guide to understanding all kinds of open databases–business, government, science, technology, retail, social media, and more–and using those resources to your best advantage. You’ll learn how to tap crowds for fast innovation, conduct research through open collaboration, and manage and market your business in a transparent marketplace.
Open Data is open for business–and the opportunities are as big and boundless as the Internet itself. This powerful, practical book shows you how to harness the power of Open Data in a variety of applications:

  • HOT STARTUPS: turn government data into profitable ventures
  • SAVVY MARKETING: understand how reputational data drives your brand
  • DATA-DRIVEN INVESTING: apply new tools for business analysis
  • CONSUMER IN FORMATION: connect with your customers using smart disclosure
  • GREEN BUSINESS: use data to bet on sustainable companies
  • FAST R&D: turn the online world into your research lab
  • NEW OPPORTUNITIES: explore open fields for new businesses

Whether you’re a marketing professional who wants to stay on top of what’s trending, a budding entrepreneur with a billion-dollar idea and limited resources, or a struggling business owner trying to stay competitive in a changing global market–or if you just want to understand the cutting edge of information technology–Open Data Now offers a wealth of big ideas, strategies, and techniques that wouldn’t have been possible before Open Data leveled the playing field.
The revolution is here and it’s now. It’s Open Data Now.”

Supporting open government in New Europe

Curated on Posted on by Stefaan Verhulst

Google Europe Blog: “The “New Europe” countries that joined the European Union over the past decade are moving ahead fast to use the Internet to improve transparency and open government. We recently partnered with Techsoup Global to support online projects driving forward good governance in Romania, the Czech Republic, and most recently, in Slovakia.
Techsoup Global, in partnership with the Slovak Center for Philanthropy, recently held an exciting social-startups awards ceremony Restart Slovakia 2013 in Bratislava. Slovakia’s Deputy Minister of Finance and Digital Champion Peter Pellegrini delivered keynote promoting Internet and Open Data and announced the winners of this year contest. Ambassadors from U.S., Israel and Romania and several distinguished Slovak NGOs also attended the ceremony.
Winning projects included:

  • Vzdy a vsade – Always and Everywhere – a volunteer portal offering online and anonymous psychological advice to internet users via chat.
  • Nemlcme.sk – a portal providing counsel for victims of sexual assaults.
  • Co robim – an educational online library of job careers advising young people how to choose their career paths and dream jobs.
  • Mapa zlocinu – an online map displaying various rates of criminality in different neighbourhoods.
  • Demagog.sk – a platform focused on analyzing public statements of politicians and releasing information about politicians and truthfulness of their speeches in a user-friendly format.”